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The Tragic Science
The tragic science. The tragedy of economics ; Economic paternalism, heroic economics ; Harm's complexity -- The origins of econogenic harm. The unevenness of econogenic impact ; The specter of irreparable ignorance ; Counterfactual fictions in economic explanation and harm assessment -- Economic moral geometry. Managing harm via economic moral geometry ; Moral geometry: An assessment ; Beyond moral geometry: interests, social harm, capabilities -- Confronting econogenic harm responsibly. Economic harm profile analysis ; Decision making under deep uncertainty ; Conclusion: from reckless to responsible economics.
Combat Crew
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Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty
Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the munitions mix challenge, to demonstrate how RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Air Force Register
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Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use
How could producing 25 percent of U.S. electricity and motor-vehicle transportation fuels from renewables by the year 2025 affect U.S. consumer energy expenditures and CO2 emissions? This report finds that reaching 25 percent renewables with limited impact on expenditures requires significant progress in renewable-energy technologies and biomass production. Without substantial innovation in these areas, expenditures could increase considerably.
Blindside
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important cha...
Reclaiming a Scientific Anthropology
This second edition of Reclaiming a Scientific Anthropology arrives at just the right time, as new advances in science increasingly affect anthropologists of all stripes. Lawrence Kuznar begins by reviewing the basic issues of scientific epistemology in anthropology as they have taken shape over the life of the discipline. He then describes postmodern and other critiques of both science and scientific anthropology, and he concludes with stringent analyses of these debates. This new edition brings this important text firmly into the 21st century; it not only updates the scholarly debates but it describes new research techniques—such as computer modeling systems—that could not have been imagined just a decade ago. In a field that has become increasingly divided over basic methods of reasearch and interpretation, Kuznar makes a powerful argument that anthropology should return to its roots in empirical science.
Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation
This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical mode...
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tool...
Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future
"This document assesses the opportunities and risks that the government of Israel faces in shifting to an energy mix increasingly dominated by domestic and imported natural gas. The analysis seeks to help the Israeli government choose robust strategies for exploiting the use of natural gas by minimizing the potential consequences of relying more heavily on natural gas. It does this by applying newly developed methods for strategic planning and decisionmaking under deep uncertainty for these assessments. The analysis also considers broader issues related to energy in Israel." --Preface.
