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Private Sector Participation
The Brazilian position on the issue of private sector participation in the efforts to forestall and resolve emerging markets crises is that there should be an approach of contacting and convincing a large number, but not the totality, of private creditors. They should be convinced that the international public sector loans will allow a transition to stability that is overfinanced in case they voluntarily join in by maintaining their exposure to the country, at the spreads they choose, and with the counterparts they wish to have as clients. We model private sector participation by means of a game. We show that the traditional argument that there is a coordination problem among the private cre...
Game Theory, Experience, Rationality
When von Neumann's and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior appeared in 1944, one thought that a complete theory of strategic social behavior had appeared out of nowhere. However, game theory has, to this very day, remained a fast-growing assemblage of models which have gradually been united in a new social theory - a theory that is far from being completed even after recent advances in game theory, as evidenced by the work of the three Nobel Prize winners, John F. Nash, John C. Harsanyi, and Reinhard Selten. Two of them, Harsanyi and Selten, have contributed important articles to the present volume. This book leaves no doubt that the game-theoretical models are on the right t...
Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil
Brazil has put in place an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy in mid-1999, less than six months after moving to a floating exchange rate system. This paper presents the macroeconomic background that has led to the shift in monetary policy regime, and describes the general institutional arrangements and operational framework that has been adopted. The paper also discusses the basic modeling approach that has aided the decision-making process in the initial phase of inflation targeting in Brazil. We describe the family of small-scale macroeconomic models that has been used for informing and disciplining discussions about monetary policy within the Central Bank. These models contain few equations and few variables, but carry a considerable theoretical content and provide a stylized representation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They are easily understood, and especially suitable for simulation of a wide range of issues. We conclude with the main lessons that may be drawn from the initial Brazilian experience with inflation targeting.
Ibss: Economics: 2001
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Money Affairs
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Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening
I conduct interviews with 32 Central Bankers from Emerging Markets and present five unifying themes that explain their behavior when reacting to a U.S. monetary tightening. I then estimate the impulse response functions of their two main monetary tools, the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions, to an increase in the U.S. rate, using the answers from the interviews as a guide for the best econometric specification. I find that most Central Banks react to a U.S. tightening by raising domestic rates, regardless of the exchange rate regime, but their reasons for doing so vary – from controlling inflation to preventing capital outflows.
