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Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
The Late Tang
" The poetry of the Late Tang often looked backward, and many poets of the period distinguished themselves through the intensity of their retrospective gaze. Chinese poets had always looked backward to some degree, but for many Late Tang poets the echoes and the traces of the past had a singular aura. In this work, Stephen Owen resumes telling the literary history of the Tang that he began in his works on the Early and High Tang. Focusing in particular on Du Mu, Li Shangyin, and Wen Tingyun, he analyzes the redirection of poetry that followed the deaths of the major poets of the High and Mid-Tang and the rejection of their poetic styles. The Late Tang, Owen argues, forces us to change our very notion of the history of poetry. Poets had always drawn on past poetry, but in the Late Tang, the poetic past was beginning to assume the form it would have for the next millennium; it was becoming a repertoire of available choices--styles, genres, the voices of past poets. It was this repertoire that would endure. "
Drivers of Spain’s Export Performance and the Role of the Labor Market Reforms
Spain’s export performance strengthened after the global financial crisis, and exports now represent more than a third of GDP. This paper argues that several factors contributed to that achievement: external demand, supported by greater diversification of destination markets; enhanced export orientation of Spanish firms, partly as a response to lower domestic demand after the crisis; and competitiveness gains, reflecting in part changes in the labor market following structural reforms adopted in 2010 and 2012. Based on cross-country panel regressions linking real export growth to employment protection indicators, those labor market reforms are estimated to account for nearly one-tenth to above one-quarter of Spain’s total export growth rate from 2010 to 2013.
Cyprus
Cyprus is recovering strongly from the 2012–13 crisis. GDP growth is projected to remain above 4 percent in 2018–19, buoyed by services and foreign-financed construction. Unemployment is rapidly declining while large fiscal primary surpluses are putting public debt back on a declining path. Nevertheless, crisis legacies continue to weigh on the banking system. In early 2018, difficulties in the Cyprus Cooperative Bank led the authorities to intervene, albeit at a significant fiscal cost. In the process, a package of legislative measures strengthening the insolvency and foreclosure regime was also approved, which is now catalyzing the cleanup of bank balance sheets. These developments have led to a sovereign ratings upgrade, restoring Cyprus’s investment grade status.
Spain
This Selected Issues paper on Spain focuses on differences in regional productivity. Recent studies of income convergence among Spanish regions suggest that the convergence has been slow since 1980 reflecting persistent regional disparities in total factor productivity. The empirical analysis—employing stochastic frontier models—finds that, among other factors, differences in regions’ skills mismatch and technology absorption capacity could be behind the disparities. A benchmarking exercise demonstrates significant potential growth benefits from policy measures that would bring regions closer to the frontier. Regional income disparities—driven by differences in total factor productivity (TFP) and unemployment—while not large compared with European peers, have been persistent in recent years. The economy’s overall productivity frontier moved inward overtime, but this trend has slowed down after the crisis. The inward shift of the production frontier could be one of the explanations for the negative TFP growth observed before the crisis. Active labor market policies at the regional level could also work toward addressing skills mismatch and education outcomes.
The Interweaving of Rituals
The death of the Italian Jesuit Matteo Ricci in China in 1610 was the occasion for demonstrations of European rituals appropriate for a Catholic priest and also of Chinese rituals appropriate to the country hosting the Jesuit community. Rather than burying Ricci immediately in a plain coffin near the church, according to their European practice, the Jesuits followed Chinese custom and kept Ricci's body for nearly a year in an air-tight Chinese-style coffin and asked the emperor for burial ground outside the city walls. Moreover, at Ricci's funeral itself, on their own initiative the Chinese performed their funerary rituals, thus starting a long and complex cultural dialogue in which they too...
Austria
KEY ISSUES Context: Austria did not experience a severe boom-bust cycle and came through the crisis relatively well. The main impact was on the banking sector and public debt. With cyclical slack low and the recovery taking hold, this is the time to resolve crisis legacies and address long-standing structural issues. Outlook and risks: The recovery is taking hold, driven by a pick-up in exports. The most acute risks are mainly geopolitical and could in particular lead to financial spillovers. Financial sector policies: Bank restructuring should now be rapidly completed and bad asset disposal accelerated. Large internationally active banks should stand ready for further capital increases, and...
2022-2023 Diversity & Inclusion Report
This paper provides an update on progress towards the Fund’s FY 2025 Diversity Benchmarks, as of the end of FY 2023. The paper also includes information on action the Fund is taking to promote greater diversity and inclusion through a two-year roadmap of initiatives primarily focused on recruitment, talent development, equity and inclusion and promoting greater leadership accountability and transparency. The paper also covers plans to convene a cross-functional working group to establish the Diversity Benchmarks targets for FY 2030.
The Right Kind of Help? Tax Incentives for Staying Small
Some countries support smaller firms through tax incentives in an effort to stimulate job creation and startups, or alleviate specific distortions, such as financial constraints or high regulatory or tax compliance costs. In addition to fiscal costs, tax incentives that discriminate by firm size without specifically targeting R&D investment can create disincentives for firms to invest and grow, negatively affecting firm productivity and growth. This paper analyzes the relationship between size-related corporate income tax incentives and firm productivity and growth, controlling for other policy and firm-level factors, including product market regulation, financial constraints and innovation. Using firm level data from four European economies over 2001–13, we find evidence that size-related tax incentives that do not specifically target R&D investment can weigh on firm productivity and growth. These results suggest that when designing size-based tax incentives, it is important to address their potential disincentive effects, including by making them temporary and targeting young and innovative firms, and R&D investment explicitly.
