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Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.
Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility
Many countries have moved towards more flexible exchange rate regimes over the last decade to take advantage of greater monetary policy autonomy and flexibility in responding to external shocks. Some reluctance to let go of pegged exchange rates persists, however, despite the benefits of flexibility. The institutional and operational requirements needed to support a floating exchange rate, as well as difficulties in assessing the right time and manner to exit, tend to be additional factors in this reluctance. This volume presents the concrete steps taken by a number of countries in transition to greater exchange rate flexibility and elaborates on the operational ingredients that proved helpful in promoting successful and durable transitions. It attempts to provide a better understanding (and hence a "road map") of how these various operational ingredients were established and coordinated, how their implementation interacted with macro and other conditions, and how they contributed to the smoothness of each transition.
FCC Record
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The Stinson Family
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Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages
This paper develops a stylized, small, open economy macro model that incorporates an explicit and non-trivial role for financial intermediation. It illustrates how such a model could be used for policy analysis in an emerging market economy where policymakers are concerned about risks associated with rapid credit growth, financial dollarization, and foreign borrowing, while lacking traditional tools to effect monetary policy transmission, and hence could resort to more direct instruments, such as foreign exchange market intervention and regulatory and administrative measures. Calibrating the model to a stylized emerging European economy, the paper simulates real and financial sector implications of various external and policy-related shocks that could be used as input for monetary policy making.
Postcards from Absurdistan
A sweeping history of a twentieth-century Prague torn between fascism, communism, and democracy—with lessons for a world again threatened by dictatorship Postcards from Absurdistan is a cultural history of Prague from 1938, when the Nazis destroyed Czechoslovakia’s artistically vibrant liberal democracy, to 1989, when the country’s socialist regime collapsed after more than four decades of communist party rule. Derek Sayer shows that Prague’s twentieth century, far from being a story of inexorable progress toward some “end of history,” whether fascist, communist, or democratic, was a tragicomedy of recurring nightmares played out in a land Czech dissidents dubbed Absurdistan. Sit...
2000_Sozin_Miniatures
Need an aggressive system against the Sicilian? Introduced by Sozin, popularized by Fischer, and played by Grandmasters, correspondence players, OTB players, and computers, the Sozin is a sharp, tactical, and forceful response to the Sicilian. With White's bishop hitting Black's weak point on f7, and able to castle either to the Queenside or the Kingside, White is ready to set up his attacks. This book of over 2700 short games (many with annotations and diagrams, and all complete), plus opening indexes, provides a wealth of games and analysis to help you learn the systems against the Classical, Najdorf, and Dragon variations, and avoid the traps that can ensnare both sides. The miniatures are easy to play over; no game is over 25 moves. Mr. Escalante earned his Candidate Master's Title in 1992 and was the editor of Rank & File from 1995 to 1997. His games have appeared in Rank & File, The Los Angeles Times, The Orange County Register, Chess Life, and other publications.
FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model
We develop an open economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. We obtain closed-form solutions for the optimal interest rate policy and FX intervention under discretionary policy, in the face of shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. The solution shows that FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the economy and mitigate the welfare losses associated with such shocks. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, the risk of multiple equilibria (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) is high. We determine the conditions under which indeterminacy can occur and highlight how the use of FX intervention reinforces the central bank’s credibility and limits the risk of multiple equilibria.
Tearing Down Walls
This volume--the fifth in a series of histories of the International Monetary Fund--examines the 1990s, a tumultuous decade in which the IMF faced difficult challenges and took on new and expanded roles. Among these were assisting countries that had long operated under central planning to manage transitions toward market economies, helping countries in financial crisis after sudden loss of support from private financial markets, adapting surveillance to reflect the growing acceptance of international standards for economic and financial policies, helping low-income countries grow and begin to eradicate poverty while staying within its mandate as a monetary institution, and providing adequate financial assistance to members in an age of limited official resources. The IMF's successes and setbacks in facing these challenges provide valuable lessons for an uncertain future.
