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Deviations from Rules-Based Policy and Their Effects
Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a disc...
Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules
The size of the output gap coefficient is the key determinant of whether quantitative easing since 2009 and continued near-zero interest rates can by justified by a Taylor rule. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and Vice-Chair Janet Yellen have argued that John Taylor proposed a monetary policy rule with a larger output gap coefficient in his 1999 paper than in his 1993 paper, and have used this argument to justify negative prescribed interest rates in 2009-2010 and near-zero interest rates through 2015. While Taylor neither proposed nor advocated a different rule in 1999 than in 1993, he did not draw a distinction between the implications of the two rules. In accord with common practice at the time, Taylor used revised data. We show that, using real-time data available to policymakers (although not to Taylor when he wrote the paper), there is a sharp difference in the implications of rules with a smaller and a larger output gap coefficient. If John Taylor had been able to use real-time data in his 1999 paper, the importance of the distinction between Taylor's original rule with a smaller output gap coefficient and other rules with a larger coefficient would have been evident much earlier.
International Monetary Cooperation
In September 1985, emissaries of the world's five leading industrial nations—the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan—secretly gathered at the Plaza Hotel in New York City and unveiled an unprecedented effort to correct the largest set of current account and exchange rate imbalances that had ever threatened the world economy. The Plaza Accord is credited with sharply realigning exchange rates, significantly reducing current account imbalances, and countering protectionist pressures in the United States. But did the Accord provide a foundation for ongoing international financial stability and policy coordination? Or was it simply a unique one-time coincidence of national int...
The Taylor Principles
We use tests for structural change to identify periods of low, positive, and negative Taylor rule deviations, the difference between the federal funds rate and the rate prescribed by the original Taylor rule. The tests define four monetary policy eras: a negative deviations era during the Great Inflation from 1965 to 1979, a positive deviations era during the Volcker disinflation from 1980 to 1987, a low deviations era during the Great Moderation from 1987 to 2000, and another negative deviations era from 2001 to 2015. We then estimate Taylor rules for the different eras. The most important violations of the Taylor principles, the four elements that comprise the Taylor rule, are that the coe...
(Taylor) Rules Versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy
The Taylor rule has been the dominant metric for monetary policy evaluation over the past 20 years, and it has become common practice to identify periods where policy either adheres closely to or deviates from the Taylor rule benchmark. The purpose of this paper is to identify (Taylor) rules-based and discretionary eras solely from the data so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. We define Taylor rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger Taylor rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the original Taylor rule, and use tests for multipl...
Progress and Confusion
Leading economists consider the shape of future economic policy: will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or contend with the post-crisis “new normal”? What will economic policy look like once the global financial crisis is finally over? Will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or will it be forced to contend with a post-crisis “new normal”? Have we made progress in addressing these issues, or does confusion remain? In April of 2015, the International Monetary Fund gathered leading economists, both academics and policymakers, to address the shape of future macroeconomic policy. This book is the result, with prominent figures—including Ben Bernanke, John Taylor, and Paul Volcker—o...
Taylor Rules with Real-Time Data
Using real-time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy, we find that estimated Taylor rules based on revised and real-time data differ more for Germany than for the U.S., Taylor rules using real-time data suggest differences between U.S. and German monetary policies, and Taylor rules for the U.S. using inflation forecasts are nearly identical to those using lagged inflation rates. Evidence of out-of-sample predictability for the dollar/mark nominal exchange rate with forecasts based on Taylor rule fundamentals is only found with real-time data and does not increase if inflation forecasts are used.
Violent Conflict and Online Segregation
Does the intensity of a social conflict affect political division? Traditionally, social cleavages are seen as the underlying cause of political conflicts. It is clear, however, that a violent conflict itself can shape partisan, social, and national identities. In this paper, we ask whether social conflicts unite or divide the society by studying the effects of Ukraine's military conflict with Russia on online social ties between Ukrainian provinces (oblasts). In order to do that, we collected original data on the cross-regional structure of politically relevant online communication among users of VKontakte social networking site. We analyze the panel of provinces spanning the most active ph...
Reform of the International Monetary System
An argument that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance. In this book, the economist John Taylor argues that the apparent correlation of monetary policy decisions among different countries—largely the result of countries' concerns about the exchange rate—causes monetary policy to deviate from effective policies that stabilize inflation and the economy. He argues that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance. Taylor shows that monetary polices in recent years have been deployed either defensively...
