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This paper investigates the empirical relationship between globalisation and civil conflict in a sample of 159 countries over the period 1972-2009. To that end, we use a measure of globalisation that distinguishes the social and political dimensions of integration from the economic dimension, thus allowing us to adopt a broader perspective than in most of existing studies. The results show that the inclusion of country fixed effects removes the statistical association between the degree of integration with the rest of the world and the incidence of internal conflict. We present instrumental variables estimates that also show no causal effect of globalisation on civil conflict. These findings do not depend either on the specific dimension of globalisation considered or the measure of conflict used in the analysis. Likewise, the absence of a relationship between globalisation and civil conflict is not driven by countries located in the most conflictive regions in the world.
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نظراً لحداثة ميدان الدراسات المستقبلية في العالم العربي، وغلبة المنظور الحدسي على استشراف المستقبل، ونقص المعرفة في تقنيات الدراسات المستقبلية، فإن مركز الزيتونة يأمل من تقديم هذا الكتاب تحفيز الدراسات العربية في مجال الاستشراف، القائمة على معرفة تقنيات هذا الميدان، وكيفية تطبيقها. لقد أصبح علم الدراسات المستقبلية ميداناً معرفياً يتغذى على كل ما تثمره المعرفة العلمية المتجددة ...
Industrialization and Assimilation examines the process of ethnic identity change in a broad historical context. Green explains how and why ethnicity changes across time, showing that, by altering the basis of economic production from land to labour and removing people from the 'idiocy of rural life', industrialization makes societies more ethnically homogenous. More specifically, the author argues that industrialization lowers the relative value of rural land, leading people to identify less with narrow rural identities in favour of broader identities that can aid them in navigating the formal urban economy. Using large-scale datasets that span the globe as well as detailed case studies ranging from mid-twentieth-century Turkey to contemporary Botswana, Somalia and Uganda, as well as evidence from Native Americans in the United States and the Māori in New Zealand, Industrialization and Assimilation provides a new framework to understand the origins of modern ethnic identities.
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