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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, wellquantified cases drawn from military history, we ...
Hot Tickets
In 2010, University of Kansas officials were shocked to learn that the FBI and IRS were on campus investigating Rodney Jones, former head of the Athletics Ticket Office, for stealing Jayhawks basketball tickets and selling them to brokers. Investigators found that for more than five years Jones and a small ring of university officials had conspired to loot the university of $2 million in tickets, reselling them for $3-5 million. In what was perhaps the biggest scandal in college sports history, all seven members of the "Kansas Ticket Gang" pleaded guilty to RICO Act indictments. Five went to prison--two were given probation for turning state's evidence.
Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences
This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It wil...
The Universal Republic
Can humanity achieve collective self-government in a highly interdependent world? Catastrophic climate change, biodiversity loss, pandemics, war and displacement, the dangers of nuclear weapons and new technologies, and persistent poverty and inequality are among the global challenges that expose the weaknesses of existing international institutions as well as the profound disparities of power and vulnerability that exist among the world's people. The Universal Republic: A Realistic Utopia? examines whether a democratic world state is a feasible and desirable solution to the problem of establishing effective and just governance on the planet we share. While this question has haunted thinkers...
What Do We Know about War?
This invaluable text assesses the current research on the causes of both war and peace. In this revised third edition—now with a brand new chapter on the Russian-Ukraine War—leading international relations scholars explore the role of territorial disputes, power, alliances, arms races, rivalry, and nuclear weapons in bringing about war; the outcomes and consequences of war; and the factors that promote peace, including democracy, norms, capitalist economies, and stable borders. The revised third edition includes a section on emerging trends in research on cyber war, the environment and climate change, leaders, war financing, and trends in interstate conflict. Reviewing fifty years of scientific research, the contributors provide an accessible and up-to-date overview of current knowledge and a road map for future research.
The Long 2020
Sharply intelligent, often personal reflections on the global crises of 2020 that are still ongoing By all accounts, 2020 was the longest year in recent memory, as people in the United States and across the globe careened from one unfolding catastrophe to another. The consequences of this devastating year are sure to impact the planet for decades, if not centuries, to come. This collection considers the question of that long 2020 from the perspective of the lived experience of the year, its long and deep roots in various human and nonhuman pasts, and the transformation of our sense of the future. The Long 2020 assembles a strikingly interdisciplinary group of scholars and thinkers to address...
Pax atomica ?
Sommes-nous au bord d’une guerre nucléaire ? La dissuasion est-elle un facteur modérateur dans les relations internationales ? Quel rôle joue exactement l’arme atomique dans un paysage où les formes de guerre se sont diversifiées ? Ces questions sont aujourd’hui cruciales face aux menaces proférées par la Russie et alors que les dangers nucléaires se sont multipliés en Asie. Qui a vraiment le pouvoir de déclencher l’Apocalypse ? Comment élabore-t-on les plans d’emploi de l’arme atomique ? Quelles leçons peut-on tirer des crises qui ont parfois amené le monde au bord du gouffre depuis 1945 ? La Bombe maintient-elle la paix entre grandes puissances et continuera-t-elle...
Ein verzehrendes Geheimnis
Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts lassen sich schottische Einwanderer in den Appalachen im Osten Nordamerikas nieder. Der Tradition entsprechend gibt es dort einen "Sühnemann", der immer dann ins Tal gerufen wird, wenn jemand gestorben ist, damit er in einer rituellen Handlung die Sünden des Verstorbenen auf sich nimmt. Bei der Beerdigung ihrer Großmutter erhascht die zehnjährige Cadi einen Blick auf diesen mysteriösen Mann, was streng verboten ist. Fortan hat das Mädchen den verzweifelten Wunsch, den Sühnemann zu finden und ihn zu bitten, auch ihre Schuld auf sich zu nehmen. Als sie auf das düstere Geheimnis hinter der Tradition stößt, riskiert sie ihr Leben, um die Wahrheit ans Licht zu bringen ... Ein packender historischer Roman um Schuld und die heilende Kraft der Vergebung. Der Klassiker als überarbeitete Neuauflage.
La Guerre des mondes
Nous entrons dans une nouvelle ère : la tectonique des plaques géopolitiques s'est remise en mouvement. Les néo-empires sont sortis de leur sommeil et contestent l'ordre international. La Chine et la Russie veulent leur revanche contre l'Occident, et refaire le monde à leur image. La guerre des mondes a commencé. Cette guerre se jouera de l'Ukraine à Taiwan, des fonds marins à l'espace extra-atmosphérique, dans les mines de lithium et dans le cyberespace. Elle sera longue et opposera non pas deux blocs, mais une famille occidentale, plutôt libérale, à une famille eurasiatique autoritaire. Ce sera une lutte d'influence à l'échelle planétaire, émaillée de crises et de conflits régionaux. Sommes-nous comme dans les années 1910, à la veille du grand choc des empires ? Comme dans les années 1930, face à la montée de totalitarismes agressifs ? Ou comme dans les années 1950, au début d'une nouvelle forme de guerre froide ? Et si l'Occident n'était pas si mal placé pour remporter cette nouvelle guerre des mondes ? Et si ses faiblesses étaient moins importantes que celles de ses adversaires ?
