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Debt Dynamics and Sustainability
Hungary's government debt and its sustainability is a current issue from many different aspects. Applying debt-dynamic analyses, in the first part of this paper, the author examines what periods the last twelve years can be split into with regard to economic policy. His most important conclusion is that in spite of the similar rate of increase in the gross debt of the general government as a proportion of GDP in the periods from 2002 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2010, the reasons are markedly different. After that, from the several tests of debt sustainability, he makes first an analysis based on fiscal reaction function, at the aid of which tries to quantify the correction mechanisms of the Hun...
Isten és a világ
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Boosting Demand by the State and Automatic Stabilizers
Since the global economic crisis broke out in 2007-2008, the theory of boosting demand by the state has again come to the focus of attention. Besides deploying the monetary tools, the individual governments and international organizations announce one after the other, sometimes even outbidding each other, what amounts from their respective budgets they plan to assign to the moderation of the economic recession. In many cases, the fiscal stimulation of demand is looked upon as a messiah, they talk about it as a magic weapon that helps everybody who has the chance to use it. What is less talked about, however, is the price of the wonder weapon, as well as the conditions required for its effect...
The Effect of the Introduction of Online Cash Registers on Reported Turnover in Hungary
In order to reduce the shadow economy, in 2013 and 2014 the Hungarian government introduced mandatory online cash registers (OCR) in some sectors. As a result, almost 200,000 OCRs have been installed by 100,000 enterprises. In this paper we use micro data to estimate the effect of OCR introduction on reported turnover in the most affected sectors: retail, and accommodation and food services (AFS). We assume that OCR installation does not change a company's operating model, so the increase in reported turnover around the installation date reflects a reduction in the shadow economy. We identify a remarkable effect of OCR introduction on reported turnover in both sectors. For small enterprises, reported turnover increased by 23 percent and 35.1 percent in the retail and AFS sector, respectively. We also find significant but smaller effects for medium-sized enterprises in both sectors. For large companies, we only observe a significant impact in the AFS sector.
Valuable Legacy? The Effect of Inherited Fiscal Rules
The working mechanism of national fiscal rules depends strongly on whether a government must comply with its own rules or inherited ones. In the former case, a government usually introduces fiscal rules to show its commitment to a disciplined fiscal policy (the signaling function). In the latter context, however, inherited rules constitute external obstacles to budgetary policymaking (the limiting function). This study mainly is concerned with the limiting function and therefore bases its empirical analysis on periods when the ruling government inherited fiscal rules introduced by a previous government. The results of a panel-data econometric study indicate that national fiscal rules do cont...
The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability
Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, fiscal sustainability as a research area became more and more popular. This paper aims to assess the predicting power of the basic types of the following five fiscal sustainability indicators: primary gap (1), stationary tests for public debt (2), stationary test for the first differential of public debt (3), public revenues and expenditures cointegration (4); fiscal reaction function (5). The results indicate that predictive power is rather low for all indicators except for the first one. One reason for this may be that these indicators ignore the factors outside the range of fiscal policy. After comparing our result with previous research studies, we conclude that the results of these tests are heavily influenced by the choice of parameters, samples and the econometric methods used. For these reasons, it appears reasonable to evaluate and compare the predictive power of all fiscal sustainability indicators. By utilising the lessons learned, certain procedures should be standardised on the one hand, where this is possible, and on the other, methodology should be developed further in order to increase effectiveness.
Inflation, Interest Rate and the Maastrich Rule
Inflation and fiscal performance are interlinked and called for proper legislative and institutional requirements to implement policies. We argue that more attention should be paid to nominal indicators like inflation and nominal interest rate in designing fiscal rules and we attempt to corroborate our suggestion from multiple aspects. Debt decomposition indicates the importance of inflation and nominal interest rate in debt accumulation. Using a simple fiscal simulation, we demonstrate the effect of neglecting these nominal variables in the application of the most well-known European fiscal rule, the Maastricht (3 percent of GDP) rule.
Winners and Losers. An Assessment of the Hungarian Flat Tax Reform with Microsimulation
In our paper, we have used a database of tax returns from 2011 to assess how the tax reform, implemented in personal income taxation between 2010 and 2013, affected the tax burden of certain social groups and what implications the reforms had on the public finances. Our research follows the principles of positive economics using a static microsimulation model. Our findings reveal that the tax reform reduced government revenues by an annual total of HUF 444 billion. 74 per cent of this amount increased the net income of childless taxpayers in the top two income deciles. Although 63 per cent of the taxpayers with three or more dependent children are winners of the tax reform, in the bottom six...
From Movement to Inheritance
This book does not only deal with the history, but also with the effects of the Reformation over the mentality, education and scientifical research among Hungarians during the last five centuries. The spirit of the Reformation has not only been a church-forming factor, but also a force of nation-building and salvation. This volume includes 17 studies of Hungarian Reformed theologians presented at a conference in November 2016. The main goal was to give an overview of the most recent research results in history and theology regarding Reformation and its effects over society and mentality among Hungarians. The contributors come from various Hungarian theological universities from the Carpathian basin, thus the book is an overview of their research topics and results. The City Cluj-Napoca was, became and remained an important center of the Reformation, as significant events took place in its surroundings as well. The Faculty of Reformed Theology of the Babeș-Bolyai University and the Protestant Theological Institute has always functioned in an environment, where the challenges of multi-confessionalism and multiethnicity are also present beside interdisciplinarity.
