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The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning
In this work Schum develops a general theory of evidence as it is understood and applied across a broad range of disciplines and practical undertakings. He include insights from law, philosophy, logic, probability, semiotics, artificial intelligence, psychology and history.
Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.
A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence
A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is aBayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Saccoand Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilitiesand assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies theideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to thiscase, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of Americanlegal history. Modern computation methods applied to inferencenetworks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence ina complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilisticassessment to obtain opinions about how influential each group ofevidential items is in reaching a conclusion about...
Analysis of Evidence
This extensively revised second edition covers the basic concepts and principles underlying the logic of proof; the uses and dangers of story-telling; probabilities and proof; the chart method and other methods of analyzing and ordering evidence. They are utilized in fact-investigation, preparing for trial, and in connection with other important decisions in legal processes and criminal investigation and intelligence analysis. Most of the chapters in the new edition have been rewritten; the treatment of fact investigation, probabilities and narrative has been extended; and new examples and exercises have been added.
The Dynamics of Judicial Proof
Fact finding in judicial proceedings is a dynamic process. This collection of papers considers whether computational methods or other formal logical methods developed in disciplines such as artificial intelligence, decision theory, and probability theory can facilitate the study and management of dynamic evidentiary and inferential processes in litigation. The papers gathered here have several epicenters, including (i) the dynamics of judicial proof, (ii) the relationship between artificial intelligence or formal analysis and "common sense," (iii) the logic of factual inference, including (a) the relationship between causality and inference and (b) the relationship between language and factual inference, (iv) the logic of discovery, including the role of abduction and serendipity in the process of investigation and proof of factual matters, and (v) the relationship between decision and inference.
Knowledge Engineering
Using robust software, this book focuses on learning assistants for evidence-based reasoning that learn complex problem solving from humans.
Decision Science and Technology
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more....
Introduction to Applied Probability
Introduction to Applied Probability provides a basis for an intelligent application of probability ideas to a wide variety of phenomena for which it is suitable. It is intended as a tool for learning and seeks to point out and emphasize significant facts and interpretations which are frequently overlooked or confused by the beginner. The book covers more than enough material for a one semester course, enhancing the value of the book as a reference for the student. Notable features of the book are: the systematic handling of combinations of events (Section 3-5); extensive use of the mass concept as an aid to visualization; an unusually careful treatment of conditional probability, independenc...
Sensemaking
NOTE: NO FURTHER DISCOUNT FOR THIS PRODUCT- OVERSTOCK SALE -- Significantly reduced list price Diagnoses the ills of the intelligence community. Describes the potential that sensemaking offers as a means precisely for helping policymakers to improve how they think about policy. Other related items: Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-020-01589-0 United States Congressional Serial Set, Serial No. 14876, Senate Report No. 301, U.S. Intelligence Community\'s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, Report of Select Committee on Intelligence is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/552-108-00074-4 Crafting an Intelligence Community: Papers of the First Four DCIs (Book and DVD) is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/041-015-00298-8 Interrogation: World War II, Vietnam, and Iraq is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01017-0 Who Watches the Watchmen?: The Conflict between National Security and Freedom of the Press is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-020-01606-3"
Clear Thinking
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