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Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy
This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use of various time series methods, such as FIML (full information maximum likelihood) cointegration analysis and time varying parameters, besides OLS and instrumental variables estimation. In general, the development of the model's equations has explicitly tried to ensure desirable long-run properties as well as reasonable short-run dynamics.
Government Bonds and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
This paper develops a simple dynamic theory of the term structure of nominal interest rate in the context of overlapping generations model (OLG). The main results are as follows: the short and long term interest rates are positively correlated and the yield curve may be either positively or negatively sloped depending on relative supply of bonds of different maturities. Beyond this, we have obtained a simple closed form solution which depend on observable policy variables and can be tested.
Brazil's External Adjustment
In this paper we present projections for Brazil's balance of payments in 1999 under alternative scenarios for GDP growth and foreign capital inflows. Our main objective is to estimate the real exchange rate devaluation required for the country's external adjustment. Our simulations are based on the Quarterly Model of the Balance of Payments developed by the Department of Macroeconomics at IPEA.
Boletim conjuntural
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A dívida da união com a previdência social
Discute as origens do problema do nao-pagamento da contribuicao da Uniao e suas implicacoes para o funcionamento do sistema previdenciario brasileiro. Apresenta propostas de tecnicos da epoca para amenizar as dificuldades de financiamento da previdencia social. Trata do problema da divida da Uniao apos a unificacao dos Institutos de Aposentadoria e Pensoes (IAPs), especialmente no que se refere ao nao-pagamento dos gastos com pessoal e administracao. Apresenta o debate atual em torno da questao do debito da Uniao, enfatizando as alteracoes na legislacao de custeio do sistema de seguridade social. (AU).
Texto para discussão
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Programa de Crédito Especial para Reforma Agrária (Procera)
A evolucao recente das operacoes do Procera; Saldos devedores e subsidio no Procera, antes e depois do Plano Real; As aplicacoes do recursos do Procera por finalidade e tipos de emprestimos; O papel dos fundos constitucionais de financiamento; A eficacia do Procera; Evidencia empirica sobre a eficacia do Procera.
