Welcome to our book review site go-pdf.online!
You may have to Search all our reviewed books and magazines, click the sign up button below to create a free account.
Brazil
This Technical Assistance report on Brazil highlights strengthening the framework for substantial borrowing. A significant change in the institutional framework is needed to impose hard budget constraints and promote stable and sustainable policies. The approach proposed in this report is based on demanding greater transparency and accountability by subnational governments, while also making the framework more flexible. If adopted, the framework is expected to introduce risk sharing among states, within an enhanced insolvency framework, and tighten fiscal rules. The proposed changes would also put more emphasis in market incentives. The changes in the framework will also need to be accompanied by progress in addressing fiscal pressures from rising budget rigidities (including pensions) and excessive tax incentives (the so-called tax wars). It is recommended to create an independent fiscal council that monitors fiscal performance and compliance of fiscal rules by subnational governments. One possibility is to add this mandate to the Independent Fiscal Institution, while strengthening its independence and provide enough resources.
Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil
Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy's state variables, as suggested by Brainard's “conservatism principle”, although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule's robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robust. We also find that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker's loss distribution function.
Sovereign Debt with Adverse Selection
Apresenta um modelo de equilíbrio dinâmico para estudar quantitativamente os serviços de contingência da dívida soberana e os riscos de spread dos países.
Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy
This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use of various time series methods, such as FIML (full information maximum likelihood) cointegration analysis and time varying parameters, besides OLS and instrumental variables estimation. In general, the development of the model's equations has explicitly tried to ensure desirable long-run properties as well as reasonable short-run dynamics.
