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Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance
Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity prem...
A Mathematical Theory of Evidence
Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set f...
Algorithmic Learning in a Random World
Algorithmic Learning in a Random World describes recent theoretical and experimental developments in building computable approximations to Kolmogorov's algorithmic notion of randomness. Based on these approximations, a new set of machine learning algorithms have been developed that can be used to make predictions and to estimate their confidence and credibility in high-dimensional spaces under the usual assumption that the data are independent and identically distributed (assumption of randomness). Another aim of this unique monograph is to outline some limits of predictions: The approach based on algorithmic theory of randomness allows for the proof of impossibility of prediction in certain situations. The book describes how several important machine learning problems, such as density estimation in high-dimensional spaces, cannot be solved if the only assumption is randomness.
Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions
This is a collection of classic research papers on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The book is the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making in economics, engineering, and management. The book includes a foreword reflecting the development of the theory in the last forty years.
Readings in Uncertain Reasoning
Computing Methodologies -- Artificial Intelligence.
Belief Functions: Theory and Applications
The theory of belief functions, also known as evidence theory or Dempster-Shafer theory, was first introduced by Arthur P. Dempster in the context of statistical inference, and was later developed by Glenn Shafer as a general framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty. These early contributions have been the starting points of many important developments, including the Transferable Belief Model and the Theory of Hints. The theory of belief functions is now well established as a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, and has well understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories. This volume contains the proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Belief Functions that was held in Compiègne, France on 9-11 May 2012. It gathers 51 contributions describing recent developments both on theoretical issues (including approximation methods, combination rules, continuous belief functions, graphical models and independence concepts) and applications in various areas including classification, image processing, statistics and intelligent vehicles.
Bifurcated Politics
Even today, when it is often viewed as an institution in decline, the national party convention retains a certain raw, emotional, populist fascination. Bifurcated Politics is a portrait of the postwar convention as a changing institution--a changing institution that still confirms the single most important decision in American politics. With the 1988 elections clearly in mind, Byron Shafer examines the status of the national party convention, which is created and dispersed within a handful of days but nevertheless becomes a self-contained world for participants, reporters, and observers alike. He analyzes such dramatic developments as the disappearance of the contest over the presidential no...
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (Aces High MC - Dakotas - Book 2) (Second edition - Sept. 2022) Liza A tattoo artist and biker named Tango came to save the day when my brother put my life in danger again. Stupid name. Sexy biker. My perpetually soaked panties were all the evidence anyone needed that Tango could dance all over my body any damn time he wanted. Unfortunately for me, he seemed to be in a weird relationship with his buddies Whiskey, Fox, and their girl Amy. No way was I signing on to be the lettuce in that screwed up sexual sandwich. Nope. Nope. Nope. I might need protection from an entire MC, but I did not need to share my man. Tango From the moment I laid eyes on her, Liza was all that I could see. Protecting her became a personal matter instead of just another job. Loving her, that was something that couldn’t be helped. If only my past, and the screwed-up relationship my friends attempted to drag me into, hadn’t become a problem. Aces High MC - Dakotas Series: Book 1: Dancing with Danger (Rage and Charlie) Book 2: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (Tango and Liza) Book 3: The Restart and the Remedy (Rabbit and Myra)
Probability Theory
A collection of papers presented at the conference on Probability Theory - Philosophy, Recent History and Relations to Science, University of Roskilde, Denmark, September 16-18, 1998. Since the measure theoretical definition of probability was proposed by Kolmogorov, probability theory has developed into a mature mathematical theory. It is today a fruitful field of mathematics that has important applications in philosophy, science, engineering, and many other areas. The measure theoretical definition of probability and its axioms, however, are not without their problems; some of them even puzzled Kolmogorov. This book sheds light on some recent discussions of the problems in probability theory and their history, analysing their philosophical and mathematical significance, and the role pf mathematical probability theory in other sciences.
The End of Southern Exceptionalism
The transformation of Southern politics after World War II changed the political life not just of this distinctive region, but of the entire nation. Until now, the critical shift in Southern political allegiance from Democratic to Republican has been explained, by scholars and journalists, as a white backlash to the civil rights revolution. In this myth-shattering book, Byron Shafer and Richard Johnston refute that view, one stretching all the way back to V. O. Key in his classic book Southern Politics. The true story is instead one of dramatic class reversal, beginning in the 1950s and pulling everything else in its wake. Where once the poor voted Republican and the rich Democrat, that pattern reversed, as economic development became the engine of Republican gains. Racial desegregation, never far from the heart of the story, often applied the brakes to these gains rather than fueling them. A book that is bound to shake up the study of Southern politics, this will also become required reading for pundits and political strategists, for all those who argue over what it takes to carry the South.
