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The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on maternal and child malnutrition in Myanmar: What to expect, and how to protect
The COVID-19 crisis in Myanmar poses a very serious risk to the nutritional status of vulnerable populations, notably women and children, as well as poor urban populations and internally displaced persons. The COVID-19 crisis will hit vulnerable groups through multiple mechanisms.
Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations
This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (J...
Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar
Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar...
Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020
Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed...
Sophie's Troubles
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Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Evidence from the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) - June and July 2020 round
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a global economic crisis from which very few countries will be spared. As a result of few COVID-19 cases, a relatively short-lived lockdown, and economic momentum prior to COVID-19, Myanmar is one of the few developing countries that the World Bank (2020) forecasts will not go into recession in 2020 – a very modest expansion of just 0.87 percent is forecast. A Social Accounting Matrix multiplier analysis by IFPRI projected a 0.50 percent expansion under a fast economic recovery scenario, but a 2.00 percent contraction under a slow economic recovery scenario (Diao et al., 2020). The IFPRI study projects massive declines in GDP across a range of sectors during lockdown periods, including large increases in unemployment (5 million during the lockdown period) and declines in household income of 20 to 30 percent for April to June, albeit with fast recovery thereafter.
Monitoring the impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Food vendors - June and July 2020 survey round
It is feared that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to widespread increases in global poverty and food insecurity and that these negative impacts will concentrate on the most vulnerable segments of the population (Swinnen and McDermott 2020). Although Myanmar, with one of the lowest COVID-19 infection rates in the world, has been spared the worst direct impacts of the disease, its economy remains highly vulnerable to the economic fallout of the contagion. A major contributor to increased food insecurity in Myanmar is the reduction of income among vulnerable populations (Diao et al. 2020), partly due to significant declines in remittances in the country (Diao and Wang 2020). In addition, disruptions to food marketing systems and changes in farm and consumer prices could also turn out to be major drivers of food insecurity. Changes in food markets – including supply of commodities and transport - and food and agricultural prices are an obvious concern to policy makers, given the importance of agricultural prices for the income of farmers and food prices for the purchasing power of consumers.
Monitoring the impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Food vendors - November 2020 survey round
This policy note presents results from five rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in different rural and urban zones of the country, focusing on results from the last round completed. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights to the government, development partners, and interested stakeholders to understand the COVID-19 related shocks on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores prevention measures, changes in shopping behavior, difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 crisis, changes in availability and prices of foods, perceived changes in consumption, and suggested policy actions by these food vendors.
