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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Epic, Empire, and Community in the Atlantic World
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Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade
Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, str...
Merging Structural and Reduced-form Models for Forecasting
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that: (i) the DSGE model underestimates growth of real variables due to its mean reverting properties in the context of a sample that is difficult to deal with; (ii) in spite of this, reduced-form VARs benefit from the imposition of an economic prior from the structural model; and (iii) pooling information in the form of variables extracted from the structural model with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy.
The Cambridge Companion to Latin American Poetry
This Companion provides a chronological survey of Latin American poetry, analysis of modern trends and six succinct essays on the major figures.
Embodied Archive
Disability and racial difference in Mexico's early post-revolutionary period
