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Russian Futures 2030
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
Sticks Or Carrots?
Which incentives have the strongest impact on the size of the shadow economy? Is it about government's pressure against entrepreneurs operating in this sector, or is it about the benefits of legality? The goal of this paper is to explicitly contrast the role of sticks (court repressiveness) and carrots (financial aid to small and medium-sized firms) as factors determining the size of the shadow economy, using the case of the Russian taxi market. It uses a unique dataset of taxi licensing data from regional transport departments and indicators for taxi market demand to estimate the extent of informal business. When controlling for market demand, it finds a strong and robust positive effect of sanctions on the size of the official market, with higher repressiveness leading to a smaller shadow economy. In contrast, the effect of carrots was insignificant. The results suggest that the effectiveness of carrot policies is compromised when entrepreneurs operate informally to avoid dealing with corrupt bureaucrats and have low trust in the government.
Brief Respite for Lukashenka: Russian Loans Alleviate Minsk's Immediate Financial Woes, But Deepen Dependency
Abstract: Late on 3 April 2017 in Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced the end of the Belarusian-Russian energy dispute. New loans from Moscow appear to be the central outcome for Minsk. This provides relief for Lukashenka, whose regime currently finds itself squeezed between economic difficulties and social protests. But the agreement leaves Minsk's underlying economic problems unresolved, while the additional debt ties it even tighter to Moscow. In exchange for its support, the Kremlin could at some point demand Minsk make concessions that contradict the EU's interests. To date, however, Lukashenka has sought to retain a degree of autonomy from Moscow, with Minsk's dialogue with the EU providing an important counter-weight. (Autorenreferat)
Kremlin Launches Risky Pension Reform: Plan to Raise Retirement Age Undermines Confidence in Russian Leadership
Abstract: On 14 June, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced proposals to gradually raise the retirement age in Russia from 2019. The Russian leadership wants to use this reform to tighten its budget and boost economic growth. Despite the media distraction caused by the Football World Cup, there is growing protest against the proposal. Trade unions, loyal opposition and Alexei Navalny are planning demonstrations. The Kremlin has framed the unpopular reform as a government project that President Putin has nothing to do with. Nevertheless, confidence in the President has been dented. A clear social response could lead to a weakening of the reform and although the Kremlin has many instruments at its disposal to stem the threat of protests, it lacks the means to regain the trust it has lost. (Autorenreferat)
Russia's Arctic Strategy Through 2035
Zusammenfassung: Russia has adopted a development strategy for the Arctic for the period from October 2020 to 2035. Reflecting hopes and perceived threats associated with the successive warming of the Arctic, it aims to advance development of the region's abundant resources, first and foremost oil and gas, and improve living conditions for the population. In the longer term, the Kremlin hopes to establish the Northern Sea Route as a new global shipping artery. Moscow also worries that an increasingly ice-free Arctic could create new territorial vulnerabilities in its Far North, and is responding by rebuilding its military presence there. Finally, Moscow also wants to preserve the region's ecological balance. The indications are, however, that the interests of the energy sector and the military will be served, while funding to improve environmental protections and living conditions will remain inadequate
Mounting Pressure on Russia's Government Budget
Economic stagnation and demographic change in Russia are putting intense pressure on the government budget. Tax revenues have been declining since the late 2000s. Meanwhile, the oil dependency of Russia's budget has increased significantly. This became patently clear when the oil price plummeted in 2014. Energy revenues have since begun to recover, but the Finance Ministry's reserves have shrunk considerably and are only slowly being replenished. To keep public budgets stable, the Russian government is forced to raise taxes and extend the retirement age in the years to come. There is a widening gap in funds required to cover the paternalistic social policies of earlier years. At the same tim...
Crises in Authoritarian Regimes
Krisen offenbaren die Fragilität der Ordnung und fordern die Macht heraus. Wie gehen autoritäre Regime mit ihnen um? Welche Stärken und Schwächen zeigen sie in der Krisenbewältigung, verglichen mit demokratischen Ordnungen? Wie lässt sich ihre Anpassungsfähigkeit und Persistenz erklären? Die Beiträge dieses Bandes verbinden die Sichtweisen von Politikwissenschaft, Geschichte, Literaturwissenschaft, Soziologie und Regionalwissenschaften auf gegenwärtige und untergegangene Regime in Afrika, Ost- und Zentralasien, Ost- und Westeuropa und Lateinamerika. Die Fallstudien beleuchten die Verdichtung autoritärer Herrschaft in der Krise, die meist zwei konträre Ziele verfolgt: die Stabilität zu erhalten und die eigene Herrschaft zu erneuern.
The Balance of Power Between Russia and NATO in the Arctic and High North
The resurgence of Russian power in the Arctic and High North will be a key consideration for NATO planners. The Alliance’s northern flank represents both a potential vulnerability due to its relative isolation and an area in which NATO enjoys options for horizontal escalation in a conflict. Moreover, as the effects of climate change create opportunities for both navigation and resource extraction, peacetime control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and a contest to establish effective administrative control in this area are likely. Disagreements regarding the degree of Russia’s jurisdiction over the NSR could, for example, simmer into a form of sub-threshold competition. The purpose of this Whitehall Paper will be to examine the balance of power between NATO and Russia in this critical region in order to establish the level of ambition that the capabilities being developed by Russia can support.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
The IISS Strategic Dossier China’s Belt and Road Initiative provides a geopolitical and geo-economic assessment of President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign-policy initiative. The dossier explores the Belt and Road Initiative’s role in China’s domestic industrial strategy and in the country’s growing influence around the world. It studies how Beijing’s ambitions, management and financing of the initiative have evolved since its launch in 2013. In addition, the volume reflects on the future of China’s initiative following the COVID-19 pandemic. The dossier is organised around a region by region assessment of what Beijing has sought to achieve in different countries and how the Belt and Road Initiative has played out over time. The volume examines recipient countries’ responses to the Belt and Road Initiative and how these have affected it. It also looks at responses from other global and regional powers to China’s economic activities around the world and offers thoughts on ways the West might better contend with Beijing’s geo-economic influence.
