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Bayesian Decision Analysis
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
Advances in Bayesian Networks
In recent years probabilistic graphical models, especially Bayesian networks and decision graphs, have experienced significant theoretical development within areas such as artificial intelligence and statistics. This carefully edited monograph is a compendium of the most recent advances in the area of probabilistic graphical models such as decision graphs, learning from data and inference. It presents a survey of the state of the art of specific topics of recent interest of Bayesian Networks, including approximate propagation, abductive inferences, decision graphs, and applications of influence. In addition, Advances in Bayesian Networks presents a careful selection of applications of probabilistic graphical models to various fields such as speech recognition, meteorology or information retrieval.
Assault on the Deadwood Stage
In the 1870s, Deadwood was a thriving—and largely lawless—boomtown. And as any fan of western history and films knows, stagecoach robberies were a regular feature of life in this fabled region of Dakota Territory. Now, for the first time, Robert K. DeArment tells the story of the "good guys and bad guys" behind these violent crimes: the road agents who wreaked havoc on Deadwood's roadways and the shotgun messengers who battled to protect stagecoach passengers and their valuable cargo. DeArment shows in dramatic detail how for two years gangs of robbers ruled the road, perpetrating holdups and killings, until lawmen and stage-company and railroad agents finally brought an end to the mayhe...
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling depende...
Chain Event Graphs
Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical mod...
Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges
Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges is divided into three parts. The first part, overviews, provides state-of-the-art surveys of various aspects of decision analysis and utility theory. The second part, theory and foundations, includes theoretical contributions on decision-making under uncertainty, partial beliefs and preferences. The third section, applications, reflects the real possibilities of recent theoretical developments such as non-expected utility theories, multicriteria decision techniques, and how these improve our understanding of other areas including artificial intelligence, economics, and environmental studies.
Barry Loser and the Trouble with Pets
The eleventh book in this Roald Dahl Funny Prize-winning series. Perfect for fans of Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Dog Man, Tom Gates and Pamela Butchart. As far back as Barry can remember, he's always wanted a sausage dog. They're like two of his favourite things (sausages and dogs) squidged together! Who cares if they bark the whole time, do poos everywhere, need three walks every day and stop you going to the cinema with your friends? Not Barry. Until he actukeely gets a real-life sausage dog, that is . . Join everyone's favourite Loser on his eleventh hilarious adventure. Don't miss all the other brilliant books by Jim smith! Barry Loser: I am not a loser Barry Loser: I am still not a loser Barr...
