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The Macroeconomics of Uncertainty
This thesis comprises three essays that analyze how uncertainty affects the macroeconomy. Each essay investigates a particular feature of uncertainty propagation. The first essay studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity, focusing on inflation. I consider standard New Keynesian models with Rotemberg-type and Calvo-type price rigidities. Despite the belief that the two schemes are equivalent, I show that they generate different dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. In the Rotemberg model, uncertainty shocks decrease output and inflation, in line with the empirical results. By contrast, in the Calvo model, uncertainty shocks decrease output but raise inflation becaus...
Endangered Plant Species for Potential Drug Leads and Anticancer Prototypes for Treatment of Breast and Pancreatic Cancers
This research features the isolation, structural elucidation, and synthesis of natural products from rare and endangered plant species and marine sponges. Part I elaborates the identification of bioactive phytochemicals from several rare or endangered plant species including Lindera melissifolia, Rhododendron brachycarpum, and Diplostephium rhododendroides. Worldwide at least 13% of known flora are endangered or threatened and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that there are over 780 endangered or threatened plant species in the US and its territories. The essential oil and solvent extracts from L. melissifolia (pondberry) drupes were gathered, purified, and analyze...
Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?
This paper focuses on the debt build-up that frontier low-income developing countries (LIDCs) have faced since 2012. First, it documents a 20-percentage point increase in the external and government debt-to-GDP ratios, a composition shift toward higher non-concessional debt, and a rise in interest rate payments. Second, using panel regressions, it shows that while both global and country-specific factors are correlated with debt-to-GDP ratios over 1998–2016, global factors dominate for the period 2012–16. Third, through a small open-economy model, it shows that the projected tightening in global financial conditions would reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by less than the increase associated with the expected rise in investment.
