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Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000–17, as well as other emerging market economies and developing countries, and finds that an improvement in domestic competition is associated with a signficant increase in real GDP per capita growth rate, achieved mainly through an improvement in export competitiveness and productivity growth. Price levels, including of essential items, are also generally lowered with an increase in competition. Moreover, at the firm-level, evidence shows that greater competition—proxied through a decline in corporate market power—is associated with an increase in firm’s investment and the labor’s share in output. These effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing sector and among domestic firms compared to foreign firms.
41 Heroines
A collection of poetry celebrating the heroism of Korean women.
Czech Republic
This Selected Issues paper examines the state of labor supply in the Czech Republic. The Czech working age population is projected to decline. This has important implications for labor supply and long-term growth. Policies to increase participation rates and retirement age are important and can mitigate the decline in labor force, but are unlikely to offset it. Under a combined moderate policy improvement scenario, the labor force is expected to decline by 3 percent in 2030 and 15 percent in 2050. Under the very optimistic (hence less likely) scenario, the labor force would increase by 3 percentage points by 2030, but then start to decline later with a gap of 8 percent by 2050.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.
Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather ...
Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.
Malawi
Malawi has been affected by a series of shocks— including an outbreak of cholera and Cyclone Freddy, which caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure—since the approval of the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement (PMB) on November 11, 2022, and the disbursement of $88.3 million in emergency financing under the Food Shock Window of the Rapid Credit Facility on November 21, 2022. In this context, growth has been weaker and inflation higher than expected. The fiscal deficit in FY2022/23 (April/March) was larger than expected at the time of the PMB. Meanwhile, external strains—including shortage of foreign exchange, difficulties securing trade credit, and a widening spread between official and bureau exchange rates—have heightened. Despite a sharp reduction in the current account deficit, accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been slower than expected, implying an increase in informal trade.
Education and Health for Inclusiveness
We discuss existing shortfalls and inequalities in the accumulation of human capital—knowledge, skills, and health. We analyze their immediate and systemic causes, and assess the scope for public intervention. The broad policy goals should be to improve: the quality, and not just the quantity, of education and health care; outcomes for disadvantaged groups; and lifelong outcomes. The means to achieve these goals, while maximizing value for money, include: focusing on results rather than just inputs; moving from piecemeal interventions to systemic reform; and adopting a “whole-of-society” approach. Reforms must be underpinned by a robust evidence base.
Malawi
Malawi is recovering from a series of shocks. Real GDP is projected to increase by 1.6 percent in 2023, with shortages of foreign exchange still weighing on economic activity. Inflation is expected to average 30.3 percent in 2023 and to start declining next year. The authorities stepped up efforts to meet fiscal targets under the PMB, adjusting expenditure to offset a shortfall in revenue, and containing government borrowing to slow money growth. The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) tightened monetary policy to contain inflationary pressures and resumed foreign exchange auctions. Rebuilding international reserves of the RBM has been slow as access to trade credit has remained limited. The authorities are seeking comparable treatment from all official bilateral creditors. The authorities continue to pursue good faith negotiations with commercial creditors to restructure their external debt and are in arrears on commercial debt while these discussions continue.
