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Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000–17, as well as other emerging market economies and developing countries, and finds that an improvement in domestic competition is associated with a signficant increase in real GDP per capita growth rate, achieved mainly through an improvement in export competitiveness and productivity growth. Price levels, including of essential items, are also generally lowered with an increase in competition. Moreover, at the firm-level, evidence shows that greater competition—proxied through a decline in corporate market power—is associated with an increase in firm’s investment and the labor’s share in output. These effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing sector and among domestic firms compared to foreign firms.
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans...
Mauritius
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
This paper discusses Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The disbursement will help meet the urgent fiscal and balance of payments needs stemming from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, catalyze donor support, and shore up confidence. The pandemic is inflicting heavy damage on Afghanistan’s economy, which is expected to contract sharply in 2020, imperiling the livelihood of a significant segment of the population. The authorities are taking emergency measures to contain the pandemic and its immediate social and economic impact. Substantial donor financing is urgently needed to help Afghanistan cover these fiscal and external financing needs which could increase further if the pandemic and its economic impact intensify. Beyond the immediate response, the authorities are committed to safeguarding macroeconomic stability and promoting inclusive growth. The central bank continues to focus on price stability. The IMF stands ready to assist Afghanistan as it battles the pandemic and to support its economic reforms going forward.
Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries
A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Staff Guidance Note on the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries
This note provides operational guidance for the use of the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework (SRDSF), which replaces the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries. The SRDSF introduces improvements in organization, methodology, transparency, and communication when analyzing public debt issues in countries that mainly finance themselves with market-based debt. After its phased adoption beginning [June 2022], it will become the Fund’s principal tool for assessing public debt sustainability.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: First Review Under the Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Afghanistan is confronting the Covid-19 pandemic and its socioeconomic fallout amid rising insecurity. Supported by donors, the authorities boosted health and social spending to cushion the pandemic’s impact on the vulnerable. Policy measures kept the output contraction to 2 percent in 2020, but poverty rose and the fiscal deficit widened. Political uncertainty has risen as the peace talks between the government and Taliban stalled and the U.S., NATO, and allies announced the withdrawal of their troops by September. In a strong sign of support for Afghanistan’s development and reforms, donors pledged some US$12 billion civilian grants over 2021–24 at the Geneva conference in November 2020.
Selected Works of Joseph E. Stiglitz
This is the third volume in a new, definitive, six-volume edition of the works of Joseph Stiglitz, one of today's most distinguished and controversial economists. Stiglitz was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001 for his work on asymmetric information and is widely acknowledged as one of the pioneers in the field of modern information economics and more generally for his contributions to microeconomics. Volume III contains a selection of Joseph E. Stiglitz's work on microeconomics. It questions well-established tenets, including many that are so fundamental they are almost taken for granted, covering basic concepts of risk and markets; the management of risk; the theory of the firm; the economics of organization; and theory of human behaviour. Stiglitz reflects on his work and the field more generally throughout the volume by including substantial original introductions to the Selected Works, the volume as a whole, and each part within the volume.
IMF’s Precautionary Lending Instruments: Have They Worked?
The paper documents the benefits provided by IMF’s precautionary instruments (FCL and PLL) to countries in accessing international financial markets. It builds on multiple methods to show that the announcement of new FCL or PLL generally leads to a significant decline in sovereign spreads. Next, it evaluates the role of the FCL and PLL in mitigating external financial pressures, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study. Economies which had a PLL or FCL arrangement in place during the pandemic experienced a lower increase in spreads relative to other emerging markets, even after controlling for country-specific effects and other covariates, suggesting that these arrangements help cushion external shocks. Finally, the study asks whether FCL/PLL drawdowns have an impact on financial perceptions; the analysis finds—albeit on the basis of a very small sample— no evidence of downside effects from countries drawing down on these arrangements .
