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The Economics of Planetary Security
In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude of such stress factors. Environmental stress, stress caused by climate change in particular, is only one of these factors. Nonetheless, in light of its diverse and multiplier impacts, it remains an important one. This report, intended for policy makers and business professionals, examines the economic aspects of the relatively under-exp...
Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation
Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of po...
The Economics of Planetary Security
Planetary security refers to the role of the environment in geopolitical risks and conflicts. As a relatively underexplored concept, this report, intended for policy makers and business professionals, examines the economic aspects of planetary security and, in particular, the vulnerabilities and resilience of countries to environmentally induced conflict. It first discusses the concept of planetary security and the role of economics therein, and then builds a quantitative framework and monitor capturing the vulnerabilities and resilience of different countries. The report distinguishes between direct economic effects of climate change on countries, unintended economic effects of climate change policies and effects of climate change on business and financial sectors. While the first two elements are captured in the monitor and quantitative framework, the third element-- the effects of climate change on business and financial sectors -- could not yet be modelled in the monitor. This report therefore discusses the links between the economics of climate change and international conflict risk, which are brought together under the title 'economics of planetary security.'
Playing to Your Strengths
This report contains the results from a research project aimed at identifying new capabilities for the future RNLA. Rather than sketch a full future force profile, it concentrates on promising new, or to be renewed capabilities.
NATO 2030
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the world’s largest, most powerful military alliance. The Alliance has navigated and survived the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the post-9/11 era. Since the release of the 2010 Strategic Concept, NATO’s strategic environment has again undergone significant change. The need to adapt is clear. An opportunity to assess the Alliance’s achievements and future goals has now emerged with the Secretary General’s drive to create a new Strategic Concept for the next decade—an initiative dubbed NATO 2030. A necessary step for formulating a new strategic outlook will thus be understanding the future that faces NATO. To remain r...
Defence Planning for Small and Middle Powers
This book examines the processes, practices and principles of defence planning in small and middle powers. Small and middle powers are recalibrating their force postures in this age of disruption. They are adapting their defence planning and military innovation processes to protect the security of their nations. The purpose of this book is to explore defence planning and military innovation in 11 contemporary case studies of small and middle powers in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Oceania. Employing a structured focused comparison framework, it traces patterns in the choices of small and middle powers across the following themes: (1) alliances, dependencies and national am...
GROTE BEWEGINGEN, GROTE IMPACT
De politie in Nederland heeft te maken met een snel veranderende omgeving en een dynamische samenleving, waarin nieuwe veiligheidsvraagstukken zich in rap tempo aandienen. Dergelijke vraagstukken staan niet op zichzelf en maken onderdeel uit van een serie mondiale ontwikkelingen waarmee de Nederlandse samenleving wordt geconfronteerd. Om haar koers, positie en inzet in de toekomst vast te kunnen stellen, is het van belang dat de politie zicht heeft op deze ontwikkelingen en de mogelijke gevolgen daarvan, om daar adequaat op te anticiperen. De politie heeft een oriëntatie- en navigatie-strategietraject opgezet om het eigen strategisch handelingsvermogen structureel te versterken en een profe...
