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On the Application of Automatic Differentiation to the Likelihood Function for Dynamic General Equilibrium Models
A key application of automatic differentiation (AD) is to facilitate numerical optimization problems. Such problems are at the core of many estimation techniques, including maximum likelihood. As one of the first applications of AD in the field of economics, we used Tapenade to construct derivatives for the likelihood function of any linear or linearized general equilibrium model solved under the assumption of rational expectations. We view our main contribution as providing an important check on finite-difference (FD) numerical derivatives. We also construct Monte Carlo experiments to compare maximum-likelihood estimates obtained with and without the aid of automatic derivatives. We find that the convergence rate of our optimization algorithm can increase substantially when we use AD derivatives.
Interpreting Investment-Specific Technology Shocks (IST)
IST shocks are often interpreted as multi-factor productivity (MFP) shocks in a separate investment-producing sector. However, this interpretation is strictly valid only when some stringent conditions are satisfied. Some of these conditions are at odds with the data. Using a two-sector model whose calibration is based on the U.S. Input-Output Tables, the authors consider the implications of relaxing several of these conditions. They show how the effects of IST shocks in a one-sector model differ from those of MFP shocks to an investment-producing sector of a two-sector model. MFP shocks induce a positive short-run correlation between consumption and investment consistent with U.S. data, while IST shocks do not. Illus. This is a print on demand report.
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Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Ascent after Decline
The Great Recession of 2009-2011 has left us short of instruments, bereft of confidence, and generally unprepared for a low-growth world. In this book, more than a dozen noted scholars discuss the prospects for future regrowth within analyses of key policy problems, major markets, and promising avenues for stimulating long-term economic growth.
Advances in Automatic Differentiation
The Fifth International Conference on Automatic Differentiation held from August 11 to 15, 2008 in Bonn, Germany, is the most recent one in a series that began in Breckenridge, USA, in 1991 and continued in Santa Fe, USA, in 1996, Nice, France, in 2000 and Chicago, USA, in 2004. The 31 papers included in these proceedings re?ect the state of the art in automatic differentiation (AD) with respect to theory, applications, and tool development. Overall, 53 authors from institutions in 9 countries contributed, demonstrating the worldwide acceptance of AD technology in computational science. Recently it was shown that the problem underlying AD is indeed NP-hard, f- mally proving the inherently ch...
Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies
A new approach for introducing unemployment into the New Keynesian framework. The past fifteen years have witnessed the rise of the New Keynesian model as a framework of reference for the analysis of fluctuations and stabilization policies. That framework, which combines the rigor and internal consistency of dynamic general equilibrium models with such typically Keynesian assumptions as monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities, makes possible a meaningful, welfare-based analysis of the effects of monetary policy rules. But the conspicuous absence of unemployment from the standard New Keynesian model has given rise to both criticism and attempts to rectify this anomaly. In this book, J...
