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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
The Consequences of Short-Sale Constraints on the Stability of Financial Markets
Gevorg Hunanyan develops a model that provides a comprehensive theoretical framework to study the consequences of short-sale constraints on the stability of financial markets. This model shows that overpricing of securities is solely attributable to the subjective second moment beliefs of investors. Thus, short-sale constraints prevent a market decline only if investors have low dispersion of beliefs, which in the model is embodied in the covariance matrix. Moreover, the author analyses the consequences of short-sale constraints on the investor’s portfolio selection, risk-taking behaviour as well as default probability. The author develops criteria that allow to analyse the effectiveness of short-sale constraints in reducing portfolio risk as well as default risk.
Scientific Computing in Electrical Engineering
The conference has an interdisciplinary focus and aims to bring together scientists – mathematicians, electrical engineers, computer scientists, and physicists, from universities and industry – to have in-depth discussions of the latest scientific results in Computational Science and Engineering relevant to Electrical Engineering and to stimulate and inspire active participation of young researchers.
"ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ" ԴԵՂԻՆ ԷՋԵՐ ԵՎ ԳՈՐԾԱՐԱՐ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ
Կազմակերպության գործունեության նկարագրություն: ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆԻ ԴԵՂԻՆ ԷՋԵՐ ԵՎ ԳՈՐԾԱՐԱՐ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ Տեղեկատվության տրամադրում Հայաստանի և ԼՂՀ կազմակերպությունների կապի միջոցների և գործունեության ոլորտի վերաբերյալ հետևյալ ուղիներով 8778 (08000 8778) շուրջօրյա հեռախոսահամարwww.yell.am եռալեզու կայք"ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ" ԴԵՂԻՆ ԷՋԵՐ ԵՎ ԳՈՐԾԱՐԱՐ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ" տեղեկագիրք"ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆ ՏԵՂԵԿԱՏՈՒ" ԴԵՂԻՆ ԷՋԵՐ ԵՎ...
Numerical Mathematics and Advanced Applications ENUMATH 2019
This book gathers outstanding papers presented at the European Conference on Numerical Mathematics and Advanced Applications (ENUMATH 2019). The conference was organized by Delft University of Technology and was held in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands, from September 30 to October 4, 2019. Leading experts in the field presented the latest results and ideas regarding the design, implementation and analysis of numerical algorithms, as well as their applications to relevant societal problems. ENUMATH is a series of conferences held every two years to provide a forum for discussing basic aspects and new trends in numerical mathematics and scientific and industrial applications, all examined at the highest level of international expertise. The first ENUMATH was held in Paris in 1995, with successive installments at various sites across Europe, including Heidelberg (1997), Jyvaskyla (1999), lschia Porto (2001), Prague (2003), Santiago de Compostela (2005), Graz (2007), Uppsala (2009), Leicester (2011), Lausanne (2013), Ankara (2015) and Bergen (2017).
Civil Society and Government Institutions in Armenia
The book provides an understanding of the three decades of Armenia’s young history – from the perspective of relations between civil society and government institutions. It explores the intricate dynamics between the two entities: by explaining the patterns of relations since 1991 to present. The book offers a comprehensive exploration for understanding the state-society relations, and also delves into the historical backdrop of the region. Drawing on the latest data, the author examines real-world practices exemplifying relational variations and the opportunity structures for Armenia to progress by means of its civil society.
Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Poets, Heroes, and their Dragons (2 vols)
The present volume is a collection of articles published by Professor James R. Russell of Harvard University, in various journals over the past decades. James Russell has been one of the pioneers in the field of Armenian and Iranian Studies, where he has demonstrated the importance of Iranian civilization for pre-Christian Armenia. The connection between the two civilizations has been part of the tireless work of Professor Russell, and I hope this publication shows the immense importance of his work for both Armenian and Iranian Studies. I would like to thank Professor Houri Berberian, Director of the UC Irvine Armenian Studies Program, as well as Mr. Mamigonian and the National Association for Armenian Studies and Research (NAASR), for supporting the publication of this book. This volume was previously published by the Jordan Center for Persian Studies, University of California – Irvine.
Ravens before Noah
This novel is set in the Armenian mountains sometime in 1915-1960. An old man and a new born baby boy escape from the Hamidian massacres in Turkey in 1894 and hide themselves in the ruins of a demolished and abandoned village. The village soon becomes a shelter for many others, who flee from problems with the law, their families, or their past lives. The villagers survive in this secret shelter, cut off from the rest of the world, by selling or bartering their agricultural products in the villages beneath the mountain. Years pass by, and the child saved by the old man grows into a young man, Harout. He falls for a beautiful girl who arrived in the village after being tortured by Turkish soldiers. She is pregnant and the old women of the village want to kill the twin baby girls as soon as they are born, to wash away the shame... This book was published with the support of the Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Armenia under the “Armenian Literature in Translation” Program.
