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Subprime Mortgages and Banking in a DSGE Model
Can a DSGE model replicate the financial crisis effects without assuming unprecedented and implausibly large shocks? Starting from the assumption that the subprime crisis triggered the financial crisis, we introduce balance-sheet effects for housing market borrowers and for commercial banks in an otherwise standard DSGE model. Our crisis experiment is initiated by a shock to subprime lending risk, which is calibrated to match the observed increase in subprime delinquency rates. Due to contagion of prime borrowers and to the ensuing adverse effect on banks balance sheets, this apparently small shock is sufficient to trigger a decline in housing investment comparable to what was observed during the financial crisis. The adverse effect of sub-primers risk on commercial banks' agency problem is a crucial driver of our results.
Using Machine Learning to Measure Financial Risk in China
We develop a measure of overall financial risk in China by applying machine learning techniques to textual data. A pre-defined set of relevant newspaper articles is first selected using a specific constellation of risk-related keywords. Then, we employ topical modelling based on an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to decompose financial risk into its thematic drivers. The resulting aggregated indicator can identify major episodes of overall heightened financial risks in China, which cannot be consistently captured using financial data. Finally, a structural VAR framework is employed to show that shocks to the financial risk measure have a significant impact on macroeconomic and financial variables in China and abroad.
The "Global" and the "Local" in Early Modern and Modern East Asia
The “Global” and the “Local” in Early Modern and Modern East Asia presents a unique set of historical perspectives by scholars from two important universities in the East Asian region—The University of Tokyo (Tōdai) and Fudan University, along with East Asian Studies scholars from Princeton University. Two of the essays address the international leanings in the histories of their respective departments in Todai and Fudan. The rest of the essays showcase how such thinking about the global and local histories have borne fruit, as the scholars of the three institutions contributed essays, arguing about the philosophies, methodologies, and/or perspectives of global history and how it relates to local stories. Authors include Benjamin Elman, Haneda Masashi, and Ge Zhaoguang.
Time, Temporality, and Imperial Transition
Time is basic to human consciousness and action, yet paradoxically historians rarely ask how it is understood, manipulated, recorded, or lived. Cataclysmic events in particular disrupt and realign the dynamics of temporality among people. For historians, the temporal effects of such events on large polities such as empires—the power projections of which always involve the dictation of time—are especially significant. This important and intriguing volume is an investigation of precisely such temporal effects, focusing on the northern and eastern regions of the Asian subcontinent in the seventeenth century, when the polity at the core of East Asian civilization, Ming dynasty China, collapsed and was replaced by the Manchu-ruled Qing dynasty. Contributors: Mark C. Elliott, Roger Des Forges, JaHyun Kim Haboush, Johan Elverskog, Eugenio Menegon, Zhao Shiyu.
Macro-financial Stability Policy In A Globalised World: Lessons From International Experience - Selected Papers From The Asian Monetary Policy Forum 2021 Special Edition And Mas-bis Conference
Since at least the Great Financial Crisis, authorities around the world have increasingly relied on macroprudential policy to help secure financial stability and complement monetary policy as an integral element of a broader macro-financial stability framework. In today's interconnected global financial system, policy actions taken by the major advanced economies can have spillovers on the rest of the world through their impact on capital flows and exchange rates, potentially generating vulnerabilities across borders. Conversely, in emerging market economies, macroprudential policy as well as foreign exchange intervention and/or capital flow management policy can help mitigate the correspond...
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