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Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling Towards Decarbonisation
The Paris Agreement establishes a process to combine Nationally Determined Contributions with the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or even to 1.5 °C. Responding to this challenge, EU and non-EU countries are preparing national and regional low-emission strategies outlining clean energy-transition pathways. The aim of this book is to provide rigorous quantitative assessment of the challenges, impacts and opportunities induced by ambitious low-emission pathways. It aims to explore how deep emission reductions can be achieved in all energy supply and demand sectors, exploring the interplay between mitigation options, including energy efficiency, renewable energy up...
Prospects for Energy Supply and Demand in the Southern Mediterranean
The aim of this technical report is to quantify alternative energy demand and supply scenarios for ten southern and eastern Mediterranean countries up to 2030. The report presents the model-based results of four alternative scenarios that are broadly in line with the MEDPRO scenario specifications on regional integration and cooperation with the EU. The report analyses the main implications of the scenarios in the following areas: final energy demand by sector (industry, households, services, agriculture and transport), the evolution of the power generation mix, the development of renewable energy sources and electricity exports to the EU, primary energy production and the balance of trade for hydrocarbons, energy-related CO2 emissions; and power generation costs.
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewa...
