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Machine Learning Risk Assessments in Criminal Justice Settings
This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk’s most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than “predictive policing” for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.
Regression Analysis
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Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk
Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.
Thinking about Program Evaluation
Through the use of specific examples to illustrate evaluation research goals and methods, this book provides readers with an overview of the science and politics of evaluation research. The Second Edition includes coverage of meta-analysis, selection models and instrumental variables.
Money, Work, and Crime
Money, Work, and Crime: Experimental Evidence presents the complete details of the Department of Labor's $3.4 million Transitional Aid Research Project (TARP), a large-scale field experiment which attempted to reduce recidivism on the part of ex-felons. Beginning in January 1976, some prisoners released from state institutions in Texas and Georgia were offered financial aid for periods of up to six months post-release. Payments were made in the form of Unemployment Insurance benefits. The ex-prisoners who were eligible for payments were compared with control groups released at the same time from the same institutions. The control groups were not eligible for benefits. The assumption that mod...
Women's Worlds
This volume of studies which focus on women themselves is intended for persons who want to know more about what current research is revealing about women, their lives, and their mental health. The research topics address the following areas of concern: (1) sex roles and sex stereotypes; (2) women and work both inside and outside the home; (3) marriage, divorce, and subsequent life-styles; (4) depression and suicide; (5) physical needs and health problems; and (6) helping services provided for women. A section listing the names of the research investigators, their NIMH grant titles and numbers, and other relevant publications are provided in the conclusion. (Author/HLM)
DreamWorks Dragons: To Berk and Beyond!
How to Train Your Dragon: To Berk and Beyond! features all the fan-favorite characters from the acclaimed films. Follow Hiccup and Toothless on their daring adventures with this interactive scrapbook packed with removable items, posters, activities, and more. Before Hiccup became chief and Toothless the Alpha of the dragons, Berk’s most famous Dragon-Racing pair kept a notebook filled with thoughts and observations on inventions, mapmaking, and the bond between dragon and rider. Or that was the plan until every Viking on the island decided to add their comments and drawings, too. Now new Dragon Riders everywhere can learn to read their dragon’s mind with Ruffnut and Tuffnut, decipher run...
Madrigals
'Madrigals' is a collection of poems by Turkey's leading experimental poet, an 89-year-old still at the height of his powers. With spare texts, sometimes with only a few words to a page, this collection has a powerful meditative quality, even as the words trail away into silence and the whiteness of the page.
