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Regression Analysis
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Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk
Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.
Machine Learning Risk Assessments in Criminal Justice Settings
This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk’s most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than “predictive policing” for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.
Statistical Learning from a Regression Perspective
This textbook considers statistical learning applications when interest centers on the conditional distribution of the response variable, given a set of predictors, and when it is important to characterize how the predictors are related to the response. This fully revised new edition includes important developments over the past 8 years. Consistent with modern data analytics, it emphasizes that a proper statistical learning data analysis derives from sound data collection, intelligent data management, appropriate statistical procedures, and an accessible interpretation of results. As in the first edition, a unifying theme is supervised learning that can be treated as a form of regression ana...
Thinking about Program Evaluation
Through the use of specific examples to illustrate evaluation research goals and methods, this book provides readers with an overview of the science and politics of evaluation research. The Second Edition includes coverage of meta-analysis, selection models and instrumental variables.
DreamWorks Dragons: To Berk and Beyond!
How to Train Your Dragon: To Berk and Beyond! features all the fan-favorite characters from the acclaimed films. Follow Hiccup and Toothless on their daring adventures with this interactive scrapbook packed with removable items, posters, activities, and more. Before Hiccup became chief and Toothless the Alpha of the dragons, Berk’s most famous Dragon-Racing pair kept a notebook filled with thoughts and observations on inventions, mapmaking, and the bond between dragon and rider. Or that was the plan until every Viking on the island decided to add their comments and drawings, too. Now new Dragon Riders everywhere can learn to read their dragon’s mind with Ruffnut and Tuffnut, decipher run...
Money, Work, and Crime
Money, Work, and Crime: Experimental Evidence presents the complete details of the Department of Labor's $3.4 million Transitional Aid Research Project (TARP), a large-scale field experiment which attempted to reduce recidivism on the part of ex-felons. Beginning in January 1976, some prisoners released from state institutions in Texas and Georgia were offered financial aid for periods of up to six months post-release. Payments were made in the form of Unemployment Insurance benefits. The ex-prisoners who were eligible for payments were compared with control groups released at the same time from the same institutions. The control groups were not eligible for benefits. The assumption that mod...
Living with Bipolar
Approximately half the people seeking help with depression are diagnosed with a form of bipolar disorder and it affects about one in 100 people in the UK. Formerly known as manic depression, its mood swings can be extraordinarily disturbing for both the sufferer and for those around them. Written by two leading psychiatrists and two clinical psychologists, Living with Bipolar explains that this challenging illness can be managed. While there is no cure, it's possible for people with bipolar disorder to live well. This accessible guide explains the characteristics of the two main forms, Bipolar I and Bipolar II; their causes and triggers; both medical and psychological treatment options - including CBT thinking strategies - and ways of preventing relapses. Drawing on the experience of patients, Living with Bipolar also offers clear guidelines for readers to develop successful personal strategies for identifying and coping with symptoms and emphasises the importance of living a healthy lifestyle.
Madrigals
'Madrigals' is a collection of poems by Turkey's leading experimental poet, an 89-year-old still at the height of his powers. With spare texts, sometimes with only a few words to a page, this collection has a powerful meditative quality, even as the words trail away into silence and the whiteness of the page.
Regulatory Breakdown
Regulatory Breakdown: The Crisis of Confidence in U.S. Regulation brings fresh insight and analytic rigor to what has become one of the most contested domains of American domestic politics. Critics from the left blame lax regulation for the housing meltdown and financial crisis—not to mention major public health disasters ranging from the Gulf Coast oil spill to the Upper Big Branch Mine explosion. At the same time, critics on the right disparage an excessively strict and costly regulatory system for hampering economic recovery. With such polarized accounts of regulation and its performance, the nation needs now more than ever the kind of dispassionate, rigorous scholarship found in this b...
