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Uncertain Decisions
Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.
Financial Economics, Risk and Information
Financial Economics, Risk and Information presents the fundamentals of finance in static and dynamic frameworks with focus on risk and information. The objective of this book is to introduce undergraduate and first-year graduate students to the methods and solutions of the main problems in finance theory relating to the economics of uncertainty and information. The main goal of the second edition is to make the materials more accessible to a wider audience of students and finance professionals. The focus is on developing a core body of theory that will provide the student with a solid intellectual foundation for more advanced topics and methods. The new edition has streamlined chapters and t...
The Economics of Adjustment and Growth
This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of structural microeconomic characteristics in the transmission of policy shocks and the response of the economy to adjustment policies. It has particular relevance to the economics of developing countries. The book is directed to economists interested in an overview of the economics of reform; economists in international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, dealing with development; and economists in developing countries. It is also a text for advanced undergraduate students pursuing a degree in economic policy and management and students in political science and public policy.
Private Sector Participation
The Brazilian position on the issue of private sector participation in the efforts to forestall and resolve emerging markets crises is that there should be an approach of contacting and convincing a large number, but not the totality, of private creditors. They should be convinced that the international public sector loans will allow a transition to stability that is overfinanced in case they voluntarily join in by maintaining their exposure to the country, at the spreads they choose, and with the counterparts they wish to have as clients. We model private sector participation by means of a game. We show that the traditional argument that there is a coordination problem among the private cre...
Game Theory, Experience, Rationality
When von Neumann's and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior appeared in 1944, one thought that a complete theory of strategic social behavior had appeared out of nowhere. However, game theory has, to this very day, remained a fast-growing assemblage of models which have gradually been united in a new social theory - a theory that is far from being completed even after recent advances in game theory, as evidenced by the work of the three Nobel Prize winners, John F. Nash, John C. Harsanyi, and Reinhard Selten. Two of them, Harsanyi and Selten, have contributed important articles to the present volume. This book leaves no doubt that the game-theoretical models are on the right t...
Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil
Brazil has put in place an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy in mid-1999, less than six months after moving to a floating exchange rate system. This paper presents the macroeconomic background that has led to the shift in monetary policy regime, and describes the general institutional arrangements and operational framework that has been adopted. The paper also discusses the basic modeling approach that has aided the decision-making process in the initial phase of inflation targeting in Brazil. We describe the family of small-scale macroeconomic models that has been used for informing and disciplining discussions about monetary policy within the Central Bank. These models contain few equations and few variables, but carry a considerable theoretical content and provide a stylized representation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They are easily understood, and especially suitable for simulation of a wide range of issues. We conclude with the main lessons that may be drawn from the initial Brazilian experience with inflation targeting.
World Economic Outlook, May 2001
The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
