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Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries
In this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are performed to derive estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances that would have to be maintained to avoid breaching the Stability and Growth Pact's 3 per cent of GDP deficit limit over different time horizons and with varying degrees of confidence. In order to capture the movement in the deficit stemming from automatic stabilisation, fiscal policy shocks are turned off during the...
Japan's Corporate Income Tax - Overview and Challenges
In this paper potential financial linkages between liquidity and bank solvency measures in advanced economies and emerging market (EM) bond and stock markets are analyzedduring the latest crisis. A multivariate GARCH model is estimated in order to gauge the extent of co-movements of these financial variables across markets. The findings indicate that the notion of possible de-coupling (in the financial markets) had been misplaced. While EM stock markets reached their peak in the last quarter of 2007, interlinkages between funding stress and equity markets in advanced economies and EM financial indicators were highly correlated and have seen sharp increases during specific crisis moments.
Tax and Welfare Reforms in the Czech Republic - Structural Implications and Challenges
The paper provides an analysis and discussion of key structural implications of the 2007 and 2008 welfare and tax reforms in the Czech Republic. Based on a detailed micro-study of marginal and average effective tax rates for individuals at various points along the earnings curve, it concludes that while incentives to save and invest have improved, work incentives are being severely hampered by high marginal effective tax rates for low- and middle income individuals. The reforms also fail to address the most pressing fiscal concern: to put government finances on a sustainable path.
Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Aging populations. Weather shocks. Scarce water. Globalization. Security threats. Policymakers today confront a number of developments that threaten to burden public budgets for decades to come, or bankrupt some entirely. This book argues that governments need to make policy changes now to take account of the potential fiscal consequences of these developments. After describing how, if at all, analysts, national governments, and international organizations currently address these long-term issues, the book stresses the vital need for a multipronged approach, involving strengthened analyses, greater attention to long-term issues and risk factors in budgeting, and institutional reforms that address the myopic biases of politicians and the public.
Thomas Pynchon in Context
Thomas Pynchon in Context guides students, scholars and other readers through the global scope and prolific imagination of Pynchon's challenging, canonical work, providing the most up-to-date and authoritative scholarly analyses of his writing. This book is divided into three parts. The first, 'Times and Places', sets out the history and geographical contexts both for the setting of Pynchon's novels and his own life. The second, 'Culture, Politics and Society', examines twenty important and recurring themes which most clearly define Pynchon's writing - ranging from ideas in philosophy and the sciences to humor and pop culture. The final part, 'Approaches and Readings', outlines and assesses ways to read and understand Pynchon. Consisting of Forty-four essays written by some of the world's leading scholars, this volume outlines the most important contexts for understanding Pynchon's writing and helps readers interpret and reference his literary work.
Haiti
This Selected Issues paper reviews key trends in Haiti’s fiscal performance over the past decade and discusses various options for strengthening the fiscal system. It suggests that a key challenge will be to generate adequate resources to support development, which requires an increase in outlays on social programs, security, and infrastructure investment to at least the levels observed in other low-income countries. The paper reviews revenue trends and key features of the tax system. It also illustrates that Haiti’s public sector employment is far smaller than in other countries.
