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The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Reform
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the EU between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments, covering personal income taxes, social insurance contributions, corporate income taxes and value added taxes. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax reforms in the EU, we provide the first narrative estimates of output and employment multipliers for tax reforms in the EU. Our results suggest that medium-term revenue-based output multipliers are in the range of -1.8 for unanticipated and -2.3 for anticipated reforms. Preannounced reforms, moreover, portray larger labour supply responses (by 0.7 percentage points) and temporarily impact economic activity inversely upon announcement. Finally, we find evidence of asymmetry between the effects of revenue increasing and decreasing measures in the EU. On average, revenue-based consolidations resulted in a 1.2 percentage point larger medium-term output multiplier in absolute terms.
Do EU Fiscal Rules Support Or Hinder Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy?
Rather than stabilising aggregate demand, discretionary fiscal policy tends to amplify cyclical fluctuations of output. The commonly accepted reasons are political economy and uncertainty. In the EU, the pro-cyclical nature of discretionary fiscal policy has also been associated with the commonly agreed fiscal rules, which, for some observers, unduly limit the scope for stabilising output. Using panel data covering close to 50 EU and non-EU countries, we provide evidence that the uncertainty around output gap estimates is not a convincing explanation for pro-cyclical policies. Discretionary measures remain ill-timed from a stabilisation perspective even when observable and politically more m...
EIB Working Paper 2022/14 - The scarring effects of major economic downturns
"Despite the efforts of policy makers to tackle recessions as they happen, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting negative effects on real GDP, pointing to the existence of "economic scarring". This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 26 OECD countries, including 14 EU member states, since 1970 and examines the role played by fiscal policy in limiting these impacts. It finds that higher current expenditure does not mitigate the lasting impact of major economic downturns on real GDP. By contrast, more government investment could help to do so, but this is generally less favoured as a policy response. As a result, scarring effects are significant, confronting governments with higher debt levels, which in turn weigh on the room for manoeuvre in subsequent downturns. In sum, fiscal policy makers face two difficulties in the event of a major economic downturn: adopting the right type of fiscal expansion, and finding the right time to pivot from short-term stabilisation to fiscal consolidation, while protecting investment."
Dynamic Scoring of Tax Reforms in Real Time
In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the ex-ante assessment of tax reforms accounting for second-round effects, i.e. the dynamic scoring of tax reforms. We combine a microsimulation model for selected European countries with VAR estimates of macro responses and, exploiting a unique database of tax reforms in the EU, compare our estimates with the real-time assessment of tax reforms conducted by the EU Member States as well as with ex-post realisations. This is the first time dynamic scoring of tax reforms is conducted in real-time and compared to ex-post realizations in a systematic way. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of a macro-econometric model combined with a microsimulation model which represents a more flexible tool than (computable) general equilibrium models in order to conduct real-time dynamic scoring analysis. Our results suggest that on average personal income tax cuts resulted in modest medium-term increases in output and employment; while the second-round revenue impact is found to be small relative to the first-round microsimulation results.
Scarring Effects of Major Economic Downturns: the Role of Fiscal Policy and Government Investment
Long shunned as slow and often ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 26 OECD countries, including 14 EU member states, since 1970 and examines the role played by fiscal policy including government investment. We find that fiscal expansions mitigate the lasting impact of major economic downturns on real GDP. However, scarring effects remain significant confronting governments with higher debt levels, which in tu...
Households' Income and the Cushioning Effect of Fiscal Policy Measures During the Great Lockdown
We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households' income and assess the cushioning effect of discretionary policy measures taken by the EU Member States. Our assessment is based on the European Commission Spring 2020 forecasts and counterfactual scenarios under a no policy change assumption. Our analysis suggests that over the course of 2020, on average, households' disposable income in the EU would fall by -5.9% due to the COVID-19 crisis without discretionary policy measures, and by -3.6% with policy intervention, pointing to a significant cushioning effect of these measures in protecting households against income losses. Furthermore, our results confirm that the impact of the...
Labour Tax Shift in Slovenia
The high tax burden on labour in Slovenia is likely to have an adverse effect on labour market outcomes and, in turn, potential GDP. This effect is particularly relevant in an ageing country whose active population is expected to shrink. International institutions have been recommending to Slovenia to rebalance its tax mix away from labour to more growth-friendly tax bases. In October 2019, the parliament adopted changes to the tax code to reduce labour taxes by lowering tax rates, raising tax brackets and increasing the general allowance. Against this background, this economic brief considers the potential effects of the reform, as proposed by the Ministry of Finance in summer 2019, on grow...
Investment Report 2022/2023 - Key Findings
Political strife caused by the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis and tightening credit are hitting EU firms just as they were beginning to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis. While the pandemic was a major shock, sizable policy support enabled firms to survive and transform. Relatively easy access to funding also helped them weather the crisis. Pandemic support has since been pulled back, however, and now firms are grappling with high inflation, instability and tighter credit conditions. These combined pressures are souring firms' outlook. The report provides insight into the state of the European economy and its ability to withstand these crises while also becoming greener and more digital. The analysis is based on the EIB Group's annual Investment Survey, which surveyed 13 000 firms in the European Union from April until July 2022 on their performance, investment, financing issues and challenges. These key findings, provide a short accessible summary of the main report's messages.
