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Households' Income and the Cushioning Effect of Fiscal Policy Measures During the Great Lockdown
We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households' income and assess the cushioning effect of discretionary policy measures taken by the EU Member States. Our assessment is based on the European Commission Spring 2020 forecasts and counterfactual scenarios under a no policy change assumption. Our analysis suggests that over the course of 2020, on average, households' disposable income in the EU would fall by -5.9% due to the COVID-19 crisis without discretionary policy measures, and by -3.6% with policy intervention, pointing to a significant cushioning effect of these measures in protecting households against income losses. Furthermore, our results confirm that the impact of the...
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The Future of Taxation in Changing Labour Markets
This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU Member States, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. Cedefop 2020 Skill forecasts, EUROSTAT population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures from the 2021 Ageing Report depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. This analysis makes use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends, given the current tax-benefit policies. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on government budgets. The analysis also shows evidence of the capacity of the current tax-benefit systems to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments.
Who Bore the Brunt of the Pandemic in Europe? Shifting Private Stress to the Public Sector
In Europe, the severe human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic was compounded by the deepest fall in economic activity in modern history. Yet this huge decline in output did surprisingly little damage to the aggregate financial balance sheets of firms and households. This paper discusses how unprecedented policy support transferred private sector income losses to the public sector’s balance sheet and contrasts this experience to that of the global financial crisis.
The Impact of Alternative Childcare Policies on Mothers' Employment for Selected EU Countries
The Barcelona targets on childcare help increase women's labour-market participation and close the gender employment gap by enhancing the provision of early childhood education and care. To contribute to the debate on the revision of the targets, this paper estimates the impact on labour par- ticipation of mothers of alternative scenarios of formal childcare policies for a number of countries. The selected countries (IT, EE, IE, AT, HU, FI, PT, PL) represent different female participation in the labour market and childcare systems. The analysis makes use of the EUROLAB and EU- ROMOD models, based on EU-SILC data, to estimate female labour supply reactions to childcare reforms. Furthermore, E...
Reducing the Income Tax Burden for Households with Children
This paper analyses the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2019, not only on micro, but also on macro level by using a dynamic scoring methodology. First, we assess the fiscal and distributional impact of this reform using the microsimulation model EUROMOD. Second, we estimate labour supply impacts of the reform based on a structural discrete choice framework. Third, we evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of the reform, by calibrating and shocking QUEST, the DSGE model of the European Commission, with the micro-based results for the implicit tax rate, the non-participation and the labour supply elasticities. We show that the child tax credit reform in Austria red...
Redistribution Within the Tax-benefit System in Austria
The aim of this study is to analyze redistribution within the Austrian tax-benefit system. In this work we take a comprehensive view and include not only direct taxation and cash benefits, but also indirect taxes and in-kind transfers. We look at two kinds of redistribution: between the households belonging to different income groups, and between generations, taking the life-cycle perspective. Our analysis shows that indirect taxes, as known from the previous literature, have a regressive effect on the tax-benefit system. On the contrary, in-kind benefit seem to have a progressive effect. To analyse the impact of both, we extend our income concept by both, indirect taxes and in-kind benefits. If we look on the distributional impact, we find that the inequality-enhancing effect of indirect taxes is more than off-set by the inequality-reducing effect of in-kind benefits. The Gini coefficient increases form 0.24 to 0.26 due to indirect taxes, but when adding in-kind ben- efits, the Gini coefficient is reduced to 0.23. The overall effect of both, indirect taxes and in-kind benefits is progressive.
The Extent and Composition of Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries
This paper analyses the magnitude of automatic income and demand stabilization in EU Member States between 2011 to 2019. Our analysis finds that automatic income stabilization in 2019 averaged 41.3 percent at the EU level, with considerable variation among Member States. While the extent of stabilization is similar across income groups within countries, the source of stabilization differs, with income taxation (transfers) being more important for high-income (low-income) households. Income stabilization proved stable over time, with a few exceptions driven by major reforms. EU-level demand stabilization averaged 84.7 percent, increasing with household income and reflecting the greater ability of richer households to smooth consumption.
Heterogeneity in Effective VAT Rates Across Native and Migrant Households in France, Germany and Spain
This paper contributes to the literature on the distributional properties of VAT analysing who bears higher VAT payments between native and migrant household in France, Germany and Spain. The question is of interest both from a distributional and fiscal perspective, fitting the ongoing debate of the net fiscal impact of immigration. Using data from the 2010 EU HBS and a simple VAT calculator we show the existence of gaps in effective VAT rates between native and migrant households in France and in Spain, while no significant gap is observed in Germany. Our results also confirm the existing evidence on the regressivity of VAT with respect to income. These findings suggest that the fairness consequences of VAT reforms should be carefully assessed and advocate for the importance of considering indirect taxation when assessing the fiscal cost of migration.
