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Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty
This paper explores the extent to which Knightian uncertainty can explain features of interest rate paths observed in practice that are not generally replicated by models of optimal monetary policy. Interest rates tend to move in a sequence of steps in a given direction, or remain constant for some time, rather than experiencing the frequent reversals that commonly arise from optimal policy simulations. We categorise the types of uncertainty that have been explored to date in terms of the decision-making behaviour they imply. From this, we suggest a more intuitively appealing formulation of Knightian uncertainty than the one that has previously been used in the analysis of monetary policy. Within a very simple optimal control problem, we show that our preferred formalisation is consistent with interest rate paths with periods of no change. This suggests that the presence of Knightian uncertainty may explain some features of monetary policy-makers' behaviour.
The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy
In practice, monetary policy changes tend to produce a smooth path for interest rates while the path of policy interest rates generated by models is often considerably more variable. This paper investigates whether the inclusion of uncertainty can help reconcile the theory to the practice. It shows that parameter uncertainty does not induce much smoothness when its effects are directly incorporated into a model. Uncertainty about the interest sensitivity of output can increase the smoothness of optimal policy in a model, but the path of policy interest rates generated is still considerably more variable than that observed in practice.
India and the Age of Crisis
Much of the discussion of India in the public sphere has focused on economic policy settings and restructuring, annual growth rates, trade relations and the nation’s status as an economic and political actor within the international system. This collection considers other dimensions of socio-economic transformation in India and its profound impact on society and nature. While economic and ecological fragility are now very apparently problems of a ‘global’ scale they are nevertheless grounded and experienced at the local scale where vulnerable and marginal people located in the urban periphery and in rural areas confront these ‘crises’ most acutely. The studies in this collection en...
Financial Cryptography
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Financial Cryptography, FC 2004, held in Key West, FL, USA, in February 2004. The 17 revised full papers presented together with abstracts of 4 invited talks and 4 panel statements were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book. The papers are organized in topical sections on loyalty and micropayment systems, user authentication, e-voting, auctions and lotteries, game theoretic and cryptographic tools, and mix networks and anonymous communications.
