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Long-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate
This paper presents a model for the long-run determinants of the Brazilian real exchange rate for the period 1947/95. This is a simple representative agent model that links the exchange rate, external debt and net exports. It is assumed that: a) the country pays an interest rate on its debt which is an increasing function of the debt/GDP ratio; b) the real exchange rate is a control variable. The transitional dynamics of the model following different shocks is analysed. The model suggests that the relevant variables are the real exchange rate, external debt and net exports. A VEC model using these variables shows that the Brazilian data support the existence of one cointegrating relation among the three variables, which we interpret as the empirical counterpart of the long-run conditions of the theoretical model. Finally, we impose restrictions to identify shocks that could be interpreted as the non-observable exogenous variables of the theoretical model. The dynamics of the empirical model is estimated.
Feeding the World
Feeding the World documents the emergence of Brazil as an agricultural powerhouse during the second half of the twentieth century.
Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil
Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy's state variables, as suggested by Brainard's “conservatism principle”, although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule's robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robust. We also find that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker's loss distribution function.
Brazilian Crops in the Global Market
This book comprehensively examines the development of Brazilian agriculture by focusing on the crops which evolved from national products to international commodities on a massive scale. It traces the transformation of Brazil from a country with low-yield levels in 1950 to its current position as a leading world producer. The first section of the book examines the modernization of Brazilian agriculture through a government programme which transformed traditional agriculture through subsidized credit, guaranteed prices, stock purchases, land utilization laws, modern research, new technology and major support for exports. It also explores the changing structures of agricultural production and ...
Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve with No Arbitrage Models
We use no arbitrage models with macro variables to study the interaction between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. This interaction is a key element for monetary policy and for forecasting. The model was used to analyze the Brazilian domestic financial market using a daily dataset and two versions of the model, one in continuous-time and estimated by maximum likelihood, and the other in discretetime and estimated by Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC). Our objective is threefold: 1) To analyze the determinants of the Brazilian domestic term structure considering nominal shocks; 2) To compare the results of the discrete and the continuous time versions considering adherence, forecasting perfo...
IBSS: Economics: 1993 Vol 42
This bibliography lists the most important works published in economics in 1993. Renowned for its international coverage and rigorous selection procedures, the IBSS provides researchers and librarians with the most comprehensive and scholarly bibliographic service available in the social sciences. The IBSS is compiled by the British Library of Political and Economic Science at the London School of Economics, one of the world's leading social science institutions. Published annually, the IBSS is available in four subject areas: anthropology, economics, political science and sociology.
Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads?
The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi (2005). Those article's principal innovation is to include and study the relation among macroeconomic variables and state variables of conventional term structure models. Our contributions include simplifying their model, propose a new estimation method, add credit risk, and show results for Brazilian domestic and external markets.
Identification of Affine Term Structure Models with Observed Factors
We propose different exactly identified specifications of affine models with observed macri factors. The models are compared estimating Brazilian domestic and sovereign yield curves.
Spatial Stochastic Frontier Models
In this paper, we analyze the productivity of farms across n = 370 municipalities located in the Center-West region of Brazil. We propose a stochastic frontier model with a latent spatial structure to account for possible unknown geographical variation of the outputs. This spatial component is included in the one-sided disturbance term. We explore two different distributions for this term, the exponential and the truncated normal. We use the Bayesian paradigm to fit the proposed models. We also compare between an independent normal prior and a conditional autoregressive prior for these spatial effects. The inference procedure takes explicit account of the uncertainty when considering these spatial effects. As the resultant posterior distribution does not have a closed form, we make use of stochastic simulation techniques to obtain samples from it. Two different model comparison criteria provide support for the importance of including these latent spatial effects, even after considering covariates at the municipal level.
