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Inequality and Poverty across Generations in the European Union
This SDN studies the evolution of inequality across age groups leading up to and since the global financial crisis, as well as implications for fiscal and labor policies. Europe’s population is aging, child and youth poverty are rising, and income support systems are often better equipped to address old-age poverty than the challenges faced by poor children and/or unemployed youth today.
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
United Kingdom
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
From the Highlands to Hollywood
This volume is dedicated to the academic achievements of Karl Kaser and to the 50th anniversary of Southeast European History and Anthropology (SEEHA) at the University of Graz. Its editors are collaborators of SEEHA and experts in various fields of Southeast European Studies: Siegfried Gruber, Dominik Gutmeyr, Sabine Jesner, Elife Krasniqi, Robert Pichler, and Christian Promitzer. The Festschrift covers diverse approaches toward the study of societies and cultures in Southeastern Europe, both with respect to history and current affairs, and brings together contributions from several of Kaser's former doctoral students, colleagues, collaborators and friends from across Europe.
Ukraine
The authorities have continued to make progress in implementing the program. Notwithstanding the delay in completing this review, mainly related to a difficult approval process of the 2016 budget and political tensions culminating in a change in government in April 2016, important policy measures have been taken since the last review. This includes a sizable fiscal adjustment; a successful completion of the debt operation with private bondholders; the increase in gas and heating tariffs to full cost recovery; and decisive steps to rehabilitate the banking system. However, progress in tackling corruption, privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and advancing pension reform has been slower than envisaged against significant political resistance.
Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Republic of Moldova
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Moldova is expected to be about 3 percent in 2018. Inflation is forecast to return to target in 2018, following a pickup in 2017. The banking sector has been stable, the fiscal performance has improved and Moldova’s external position has strengthened. The outlook, however, is still subject to substantial risks. The program is broadly on track, but continued reform efforts are needed to accelerate growth and improve living standards. Important progress has been made toward cleansing the financial sector, though with delay, including by strengthening supervisory and regulatory frameworks and increasing management and ownership transparency.
Growth for Good
The current model of economic expansion driven by fossil fuels is unsustainable, leading many to toy with the idea of ditching growth to save the planet. But, as Alessio Terzi argues, a post-growth world would be prone to catastrophes no less serious than climate change itself. Luckily, with the right policies, growth can be made earth-friendly.
Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Child poverty increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, the number of children suffering from poverty in the EU increased by 19 percent, or close to 1 million. Left unaddressed, this would not only affect individuals’ life prospects and well-being but also have long-term economic implications. This paper argues that, to limit this potential scarring effect of the pandemic, policies should be deployed to reduce rapidly the number of children affected by poverty and mitigate the long-term impact of poverty. Reducing the number of children affected by poverty can be achieved by (i) labor policies and reforms that increase parental work and the labor income of poor parents and (ii) fiscal spending on family and children that can have a powerful and immediate impact. These policies need to be complemented by public investment in education and childcare, health, and housing to mitigate the long-term impact of child poverty.
Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe
Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies and the forecast is for more of the same. Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2017, up from 1.8 percent in 2016. The expansion is largely driven by domestic demand, with investment increasingly contributing. Credit growth has finally picked up, which is helping Europe’s banks to rebuild profitability. While leading indicators have recently begun to ease, they remain at high levels. Accordingly, the forecast is for growth to stay strong, reaching 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Amid the good times, however, fiscal adjustment and structural reforms efforts are flagging.
