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COVID-19
This paper from Dorine Boumans, Sebastian Link and Stefan Sauer (EconPol Europe, ifo Institute) presents the results of a survey of 1000 economic experts in 110 countries on the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effectiveness of different policy measures to combat the crisis for different countries. The results indicate that economies all around the globe are severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis. The experts perceive the reductions in investment to have the strongest impact on their domestic economies. In consequence, the experts expect a severe recession in almost all countries in 2020, followed by a long period of economic recovery. The experts rate emergency liquidity assistance to firms as well as temporary tax deferrals for businesses as the most effective policy measures, but do not regard other responses such as helicopter money or lenient bank supervision as being well suited to combat the crisis.
World Economy
As the economy and our daily life return to a "new-normal" in the midst of Covid-19, the possibility of a second wave leaves lots of uncertainty about future developments. To understand indications about the impact of the pandemic on economic performance in different countries across the world, we conducted a survey among 950 economic experts in 110 countries. This report gives an overview of the most important results of the survey and compares them in different world regions and countries. An extra focus is placed on the European Union's strategy to combat the crisis and how experts from member states assess the different policy measures.
Tax Cooperation in an Unjust World
The way that nation states design their tax systems impacts the sharing of resources and wealth within and across societies. To date, wealthy countries have made tax policy design and coordination choices which allow them to claim more than they are justifiably entitled to from the global economy. In Tax Cooperation in an Unjust World, Allison Christians and Laurens van Apeldoorn show how this presently accepted reality both facilitates and feeds off continued human suffering, and therefore violates conceptions of international distributive justice. They examine two principles that govern tax cooperation across states, and explain how the current international tax order impedes their realization. They then show how states could work toward fulfilling the principles and building a fairer international tax system via incremental yet effective adaptation of key international tax norms and rules.
Explaining Variation in Public Policy Implementation
Networks are increasingly used by policy practitioners to implement public policy. However, evidence that network approaches to implementation are actually beneficial for policy performance is inconclusive. Only recently studies incorporate Social Network Analysis, allowing for the inclusion of specific structural network conditions and their relationship for performance. This research contributes to this growing area of study by exploring the relationship between network position and the performance of projects implemented under European Union Cohesion policy, the EU's regional policy instrument. A mixed methods approach is adopted, including quantitative analysis of all the projects and their performance - financial and physical, and semi-structured interviews. The conclusion is that the inclusion of more actors is not automatically beneficial for performance. Instead the research identifies specific conditions under which organisational actors can improve the probability of better performance.
How Media Content Influences Economic Expectations
This article sheds light on the impact of the media on economists' expectations for future economic developments. We conducted a worldwide economic expert survey and find that the media provides most economists with valuable information that influences their expectations. This applies significantly more for economists in countries with long standing democratic systems and developing countries with somewhat flawed democratic institutions than for economists in newer democracies and countries with authoritarian regimes. Moreover, the experts estimate the influence of the media remarkably higher on others than on themselves. This is consistent with the theory of the third-person effect that says that an individual's behavior is influenced due to the belief that other people find certain issues important and act accordingly.
New Zealand Yearbook of International Law
The New Zealand Yearbook of International Law provides legal materials and critical commentary on issues of international law, addressing trends, state practice and policies in the development of international law in New Zealand, the South Pacific, Antarctica and globally. This Yearbook covers the period 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2018.
Who Has Terror Angst?
We examine sources of biased terror perceptions. In particular, we investigate how international experts of the IFO World Economic Survey assess the effect of terror on the world economy and the economy of their own country. The results show that respondents from terror stricken countries have more favorable views on the effect of terror on the word economy (but not on their own countries). Male respondents and those from democratic and richer countries are likewise more optimistic.
Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations
Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.
