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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries and three country aggregates separately. We come up with three major results. First, for more than three-fourths of the countries or country-aggregates in our sample a model containing one of the major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES indicators are either the economic climate or the expectations on future economic development for the next six months. And third, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of the countries. It seems therefore reasonable to incorporate economic signals from the domestic economy's main trading partners.
Who Has Terror Angst?
We examine sources of biased terror perceptions. In particular, we investigate how international experts of the IFO World Economic Survey assess the effect of terror on the world economy and the economy of their own country. The results show that respondents from terror stricken countries have more favorable views on the effect of terror on the word economy (but not on their own countries). Male respondents and those from democratic and richer countries are likewise more optimistic.
Economic Analysis and Forecasting in the Global Economy and in Emerging and Developing Regions Including Africa
Economists around the world rely in addition to official statistics on business (and consumer) surveys, which are more up-to-date. However, for many emerging and developing countries there is a lack of such surveys. This gap can, at least partly, be filled by the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES). In this paper we first describe this survey and also examine how helpful it is for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting. We find that this survey provides important up-to-date information about the cyclical stage of the global economy and of major emerging and developing regions including Africa. Increasing the number of participating experts could further improve its usefulness for macroeconomic analysis in these regions.
FamData: Database for Family Business Companies in Germany Covering Company Key Figures and Survey Data
FamData is a database covering family businesses and non-family businesses across various size classes and branches containing structural and financial information. The ifo Institute assembled a business panel with executives from almost 4,000 companies. In addition to the "hard" business data like turnover and number of employees, the database also includes "soft" survey data. The latter one covers information from regular - at least yearly - surveys treating topics like investment behavior, skilled labor shortage or reaction of firms during the Corona pandemic situation and the rise in energy prices observed in 2022.
General and Periodic Crises of Overproduction
Jean Lescure’s two-volume General and Periodic Crises of Overproduction is a pioneering study of the causes and consequences of industrial crises in capitalist economies in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The author, who held doctorates in political economy and law, is most remembered as a founder of the French historical school and a staunch advocate of empiricism in the economic sciences. Lescure called his approach the ’complex historical method’, by which he sought to revise classical and quantitative economic theory through the historical analysis and statistical observation of cyclical phenomena. Ever the controversialist, Lescure wrote in an engaging style, accessi...
ManagerMama
Die schönste Doppelrolle der Welt! - Große Zielgruppe: 2022 waren knapp 70 % der Mütter minderjähriger Kinder erwerbstätig (Destatis) - Mamas in Führungsrollen sind eines der Win-win-Konzepte für Unternehmen - Mit zahlreichen handfesten Impulsen für die Vereinbarkeit von Familie & Karriere Mit Begeisterung und Leidenschaft die Doppelrolle als Mutter und karrierebewusste Frau leben – darum geht es der erfahrenen ManagerMama Andrea Hartmair. Als Mutter und Führungskraft zeigt sie, wie jede Mutter ihre Doppelrolle erfüllend sowie nach ihren Vorstellungen und Wünschen gestalten kann. Mit Blick auf unsere europäischen Nachbarn liefert die Autorin hilfreiche Informationen und Inspira...
Johanna Schartau
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Integrationsperspektive duales System?
Die duale Ausbildung ist ein wichtiger Faktor für die Integration Geflüchteter. In seiner Dissertation untersucht der Autor aus einer betrieblichen Perspektive, unter welchen Voraussetzungen und Bedingungen die Ausbildung gelingen kann. Grundlage der Studie sind 29 problemzentrierte Interviews, die mit Betrieben in Nordrhein-Westfalen geführt wurden. Anhand der Auswertungen werden betriebliche Prozesse veranschaulicht und analysiert. Hierbei zeigen sich die Bedingungen, unter denen die Ausbildung Geflüchteter gelingen kann, sowie die Herausforderungen für die Betriebe. Der Band bietet wertvolle Informationen aus der Praxis für Bildungsforscher:innen, Betriebe und Ausbilder:innen.
