Welcome to our book review site go-pdf.online!
You may have to Search all our reviewed books and magazines, click the sign up button below to create a free account.
Fiscal Policy Rules
What are fiscal policy rules? What are the principal benefits and drawbacks associated with various fiscal rules, particularly compared with alternative approaches to fiscal adjustment? Can fiscal rules contribute to long-run sustainability and welfare without sacrificing short-run stabilization? If so, what characteristics of fiscal rules make this contribution most effective? And in what circumstances and contexts, if any should the IMF encourage its member countries to adopt fiscal rules? This paper seeks to identify sensible fiscal policy rules that can succeed, if chosen by a member country, as an alternative to descretionary fiscal rules.
Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility
Evaluation of policy rules using empirical macroeconomic models is usually done on the assumption that the rules are perfectly credible. However, there are usually circumstances that cause the authorities to abandon any given rule. The public's expectations reflect this possibility. In the paper, credibility is assumed to depend on the probability that the authorities will abandon a rule because the resulting utility exceeds that from maintaining the rule. Simulations of a disinflation policy leading to price stability are presented. Its credibility varies over time, depending on the paths for output and inflation.
Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains
Evans (1991) has demonstrated that Blanchard’s (1985) finite-horizon model obeys approximate Ricardian equivalence. We show that this result is determined largely by an unrealistic assumption that labor income grows monotonically over a consumer’s entire lifetime. Introducing more realistic lifetime earnings profiles, we find that the effects of government debt on the real interest rate and the capital stock become considerably larger. In particular, leaving aside the effects of distortionary capital taxation, the extended model with liquidity constraints predicts that real interest rates would decline by about 150-200 basis points if government debt were eliminated completely in all OECD countries.
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate
The paper tests the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (rapid economic growth is accompanied by real exchange rate appreciation because of differential productivity growth between tradable and nontradable sectors) using data of the APEC economies. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, Hong Kong and Singapore, were proved to follow the Balassa-Samuelson path. These countries follow a similar industrialization pattern, increasing the weight of high value-added exports. Although Hong Kong and Singapore grew fast, their real exchange rates appreciated only moderately. High productivity growth in service sectors might have been the reason for this. Other fast-growing ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia did not experience real appreciation. Closer examinations of various components of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis revealed that key assumptions are not uniformly supported: There is no uniform pattern for the movement of nontradable prices relative to tradable prices; and tradable prices (measured by common currency) do not show the international arbitrage.
A Noteon Burden Sharing Among Creditors
This paper presents a framework for evaluating the relative contributions of different creditors in cases where only partial payments can be made by the debtor country. A methodology is developed to calculate partial payments—or alternatively put—determine residual financing. By focusing on the relative seniority of creditors and expectations of the debtor’s ability to repay, alternative sharing rules are quantified. The measure is based on the expected present value of payments. Creditors earning a below-market rate of return suffer a burden; creditors earning the same rate of return are said to share the burden equally.
Financing the Transition of Previously Centrally Planned Economies
Under alternative assumptions on the likely developments in external financing of PCPE transition, and based on a multi-country, forward-looking model that includes a simplified PCPE block, we simulate the response of PCPEs to a transfer of capital from the industrial countries, and assess the potential implications for Western Europe over the next ten years. Real interest rates in Western Europe are likely to experience only mild upward pressure, and most macroeconomic aggregates are likely to change by substantially smaller magnitudes than typical over the business cycle.
International Vat Harmonization
This paper highlights key macroeconomic issues related to VAT harmonization. A model is developed which emphasizes the effects of changes in the time profile of various taxes on international behavior. Dynamic simulations reveal that the macroeconomic and welfare implications of VAT harmonization, including conflicts of interest, depend critically on the tax system and the degree of substitution governing temporal and intertemporal allocations. We also demonstrate that the effects of revenue-neutral tax conversions between income and consumption tax systems undertaken by a single country depend critically on international differences in behavior.
Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in France, Germany, Italy and Spain
Fiscal rules can help to counteract the deficits and spending biases that too often originate in the political process. Rules that constrain spending--rather than the balance--allow fiscal policy to be countercyclical. Yet the design of effective spending rules is by no means straightforward. Should a rule be real or nominal? How comprehensive should the definition of spending be? What safeguards ensure the credibility of a rule? How do rules work in decentralized systems where regions and states are partially autonomous? France, Germany, Italy, and Spain--countries that could benefit from more emphasis on fiscal rules to constrain spending--are explored here as case studies.
Fiscal Multipliers
None
The Impact of Worldwide Military Spending Cutson Developing Countries
This paper investigates the economic impact of a coordinated reduction in military expenditures of 20 percent using a specially modified version of the MULTIMOD world economic model. Simulation results indicate that in developing countries the present value of consumption increases by 46 percent of 1992 GDP, compared to military expenditures cuts, in present value terms, of 33 percent of 1992 GDP. The gains reflect both the release of domestic resources and a positive international economic externality due to enhanced trade and lower world interest rates. Accordingly, the net debtor developing country gains exceed those of industrial countries. Examination of individual developing country economies confirms the significance of the external trade effect on the pattern and level of gains.
