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Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 81

Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets

Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global an...

How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 27

How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

Lifting Growth in the Western Balkans
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 75

Lifting Growth in the Western Balkans

In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 s...

Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 48

Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.

Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 39

Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.

Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? the Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 17

Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? the Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.

Strengthening the Global Trade Architecture for Development
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 40

Strengthening the Global Trade Architecture for Development

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has a role to play in strengthening the global trading system for development, primarily by lowering barriers to trade in goods and services and ensuring that trade rules are useful to Developing countries. But greater international cooperation must complement WTO-based negotiations, in particular, concerted action outside the WTO to enhance the trade capacity of poor countries ("aid for trade").

Looking Beyond the Fiscal
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 18

Looking Beyond the Fiscal

Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds-in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.

The (positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-income Country
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 38

The (positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-income Country

Under some conditions macroeconomic crises can have a positive effect on the accumulation of human capital because they reduce the opportunity cost of schooling. This has profound implications for the design of appropriate social protection policies.

Product Quality, Productive Efficiency, and International Technology Diffusion
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 52

Product Quality, Productive Efficiency, and International Technology Diffusion

In Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco, firms' past exposure to foreign knowledge through exports, imported imputs, and foreign direct investment does not help to predict current product quality or productive efficiency.