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Statistical Implications of Inflation Targeting
This book brings together the experience of central banks and national statistical agencies in countries that focus their monetary policy on inflation targets. Inflation targeting has led to a close interface between these two sets of institutions. When the performance of a central bank is measured in terms of specified price indices, which are usually compiled and disseminated by the national statistical agency, the role of national statistical agencies becomes central to the credibility of monetary policy. Data needs and uses have also shifted, with implications for national and international statistics compilation: market data have gained in importance; less emphasis is placed on traditional monetary aggregates; and greater attention is paid to timeliness, adherence to sound economic accounting standards, and other aspects of data quality.
Measure up
To derive real GDP, the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommends a technique called double deflation. Some countries use single deflation techniques, which fail to capture important relative price changes and introduce estimation errors in official GDP growth. We simulate the effects of single deflation to the GDP data of eight countries that use double deflation. We find that errors due to single deflation can be significant, but their magnitude and direction are not systematic over time and across countries. We conclude that countries still using single deflation should move to double deflation.
France
This Selected Issues paper analyzes developments and issues in banking and financial markets in France. The paper provides an overview of the transition from a state-directed to a market-based financial system. It adopts a comprehensive approach and discusses the outcome of this transition in banking, insurance, and capital markets. The paper highlights the sequencing of financial sector modernization. The analysis concludes that, on balance, France has successfully modernized its financial industry and the financial system seems better prepared to operate successfully in the increasingly competitive international environment.
Non-G-10 Countries and the Basle Capital Rules
The 1988 Basle Capital Accord has introduced the norm of a risk-based capital ratio of 8 percent. It was negotiated among the G-10 countries to strengthen their international banks’ capital base while simultaneously levelling the playing field for competition. Since 1988, a large number of non-G-10 countries, although not members of the “Basle Club,” have introduced similar risk-based capital ratios, hoping to achieve similar effects in terms of enhanced safety and competition in their banking markets. This paper explains why the endeavor failed in most cases and discusses what the required conditions would be for effective implementation of the Basle rules beyond the G-10 countries.
Lessons From Systemic Bank Restructing
Systemic bank restructing aims to improve bank performance - that is, restore solvency and profitability, improve the banking system's capacity to provide financial intermediation between savers and borrowers, and restore public confidence. The authors of this studyanalyzed the experiences of 24 countries that initiated reforms in the1980s and early 1990s.
Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, based on economic convergence. To monitor convergence and support economic and monetary policy, comparable economic data for member countries and data for the region as a whole will be essential. What is the most efficient way to produce these data? The authors survey the statistical institutions in the GCC countries and present the case for creating "Gulfstat"-a regional statistical agency to operate within a "Gulf States System of Statistics." Valuable lessons can be learned from regional statistical organization in Africa and the European Union-Afristat and Eurostat.
Measuring Fiscal Decentralization
Conventional wisdom postulates that there are benefits from decentralizing government finances but there is little empirical evidence about actual country practices. This paper presents data on fiscal decentralization for about 80 countries over a period of about 20 years (1990-2008) from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY), the only global database with fiscal data for several levels of government. The data show that in many countries, revenue collection remains relatively more centralized than expenditures and that employment tends to be concentrated in lower levels of government. Except for transition economies, the levels of decentralization are relatively stable over the time period. The findings are shown by degree of economic development, constitutional power arrangements, and geographic area, broadly confirming key factors identified in the literature as determining the extent of fiscal decentralization.
The Role of Monthly Economic Statistical Bulletins
Monthly economic statistical bulletins issued by central banks and national statistical offices, the focus of this study, are well established in countries with advanced statistical systems. Such bulletins present a synopsis of current economic trends and cater to a broad group of users involved in policy, markets, media, and research. Compendium bulletins serve as a reference point, contribute to public economic knowledge and transparency, and can add to international visibility. The authors find that only about half of developing countries produce monthly bulletins. Based on experience in industrial countries and a survey of 22 successful bulletins from developing countries, this paper highlights the role of such bulletins and discusses selected aspects of their content, production, and dissemination.
The IMF's Government Finance Statistics Yearbook
A useful but little known feature of the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY) is the information on the structure of governments. Institutional tables, included in the GFSY, provide detail on the central, state, and local levels of governments, social security, and extrabudgetary units. We refer to the main levels of government as GL1, GL2, and GL3 in ascending order of institutional coverage. We present maps of the various levels of government for 74 countries to illustrate the usefulness of this database and make it more accessible to users. The maps provide information about how centralized or decentralized government finances and employment are and their size relative to the overall economy. Government map data facilitate the monitoring of fiscal policy and fiscal rules.
Definitions of Government in IMF-Supported Programs
This note addresses the following main issues: • Statistical definitions of government (Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001) • Institutional structure of government and public sector • What is a precise definition of government and why it is relevant • Potential pitfalls of lacking a precise definition of government • Definitions of government in IMF-supported programs • Applications for fiscal rules and other fiscal policy design
