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A Preliminary Characterization of a Decision Structuring Process for the Task Force Commander and His Staff
The specific objectives of the research described are (1) to determine whether decision analysis can be used to structure and analyze decisions of concern to task force commanders, (2) to identify those procedures that are most successful in developing structural decision models, and (3) to develop a protocol for using decision analysis procedures to structure task force decisions. Two experimental applications of decision analysis to a realistic task force decision environment are described. Problems with current task force decision-making methods are identified and suggestions for improvement are presented. A successful structuring process is described at three levels of detail. Implications of the research for the computer implementation of a decision aiding system for task force commanders are presented. (Author).
Mathematical Decision Aids for the Task-Force Commander and His Staff
The study analyzes the limitations of the mathematical tools of operations research and systems analysis within the complex decision environment of the Naval Task force. Part I, The Limits of Decision Automation, develops a conceptual framework which defines the present limitations of these tools for dealing with complex unstructured decision problems. Part II, Promising Areas for the Application of Mathematical Decision Aids, surveys the task force decision problems to identify promising areas for mathematical decision aids. The analysis uses a theoretical model of the decision process to compare the advantages and disadvantages of human versus automated and semiautomated decision methods. The study shows that the mathematical decision aids are most useful after the problem has been placed in a well-structured form. In particular, simplified models designed to estimate combat outcomes for alternative courses of action appear to be very promising. The tools of decision analysis, on the other hand, are most promising for relatively unstructured problems and for assisting during the problem structuring phase.
Decision Support Systems: Issues and Challenges
Decision Support Systems: Issues and Challenges covers the proceedings of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Task Force Meeting. The book reviews papers that tackle issues about decision support systems (DSS). Comprised of 17 chapters, the book organizes the chapters according to the topic of discussion, including framework, resource discipline, application experience, and issues for the future in DSS. The opening chapter is an introduction to the main topic of the book. Chapter 2 discusses frameworks for research on decision support systems, and Chapter 3 covers the decision support systems. The fourth chapter deals with organizational science con...
Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System (Phase II).
Continuing decision analytic research and the initial development of several prototype decision aids, for the tactical support of naval task force commanders, are reported on in this paper. Focus is on the potential contribution of advance techniques of decision analysis as decision aids in the development of operational plans and as an action selection tool in the mission execution phase of task force operations. Nine prototype aids were specified and developed to varying degrees for use on the interactive computer graphics terminal.
Handbook of Decision Analysis
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performin...
Decision Structuring Aid: Characterization and Preliminary Implementation
The process of building a decision model that captures the important relationships of a decision situation is generally recognized as the most time consuming and difficult aspect of decision analysis. This report documents research designed to develop aids for facilitating the model-building process. The ultimate goal of this research is a design for a man-machine system that will help a task force commander and his staff structure the relevant factors of a decision into a formal decision model. The research has resulted in the specification of a structuring process composed of four basic structuring functions: decision bounding, preliminary structuring, model expansion, and model contraction. A preliminary computer program for assisting a task force commander and his staff in applying the structuring process has been developed. Testing and further development of algorithms and computer support for the structuring process is recommended.
Rational Choice and Judgment
The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book ...
Network Meta-Analysis for Decision-Making
A practical guide to network meta-analysis with examples and code In the evaluation of healthcare, rigorous methods of quantitative assessment are necessary to establish which interventions are effective and cost-effective. Often a single study will not provide the answers and it is desirable to synthesise evidence from multiple sources, usually randomised controlled trials. This book takes an approach to evidence synthesis that is specifically intended for decision making when there are two or more treatment alternatives being evaluated, and assumes that the purpose of every synthesis is to answer the question "for this pre-identified population of patients, which treatment is 'best'?" A co...
Group Verbal Decision Analysis
This book describes an original approach to solving tasks of individual and collective choice: classification, ranking, and selection of multi-attribute objects. Object representation with multisets allows considering simultaneously numerical and symbolic variables. In group verbal decision analysis, judgments of all participants are taken into account without a compromise between contradictory. Natural language is used to describe problems and objects, formalize knowledge of experts and preferences of decision makers, and explain results. Verbal methods and technologies are more transparent, less laborious for a person, and weakly sensitive to measurement errors. The book also includes examples of applying new tools in real ill-structured high-dimensional choice tasks. It is intended for researchers, managers, consultants, analysts, and developers as well as for teachers and students of applied mathematics, computer science, information processing, engineering, economics, and management.
