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Reaching for the Stars
A feature of the recent global slowdown in productivity growth is that progress at the technological frontier has remained strong, while the gap between firms at the global frontier and other 'laggards' within an industry has grown. This growing gap reflects the fact that laggard firms now seem to be slower to adopt cutting-edge technologies and processes, and catch-up to the global frontier than they were previously. However, little is known about whether these patterns hold true for Australia. We exploit a novel dataset merging international microdata from OECD-Orbis with Australian microdata from BLADE. Consistent with overseas evidence, we find that the gap between global frontier firms ...
Did Labour Market Concentration Lower Wages Growth Pre-COVID?
Wages growth in Australia was lower than expected prior to COVID-19 based on historical determinants. One possible explanation for this is that employment had become more concentrated among a small number of large employers. This reduced outside options for workers and lowered their bargaining power and wages. This paper examines concentration in Australian labour markets and its impacts on wages using a large and representative database derived from administrative tax data. Labour markets have not, on average, become more concentrated over time. However, the impact of any given level of concentration has increased since the 2010s. This may help explain surprisingly low wages growth pre-COVI...
Wage Growth in Australia
This paper uses novel microdata sources spanning 2001-02 to 2015-16 to explore the structural drivers of wage growth in Australia, with a view to better understanding recent weak wage growth - a phenomenon observed across a range of advanced economies. Controlling for a range of cyclical and other factors, we show that part of firms' idiosyncratic productivity growth tends to be passed-through to workers in the form of higher wage growth, consistent with the idea that firms share rents with their workers. The size of this pass-through is around the midpoint of leading international estimates, and appears to decline modestly after 2012-13, when aggregate wage growth begins to slow. We then di...
DSGE Reno
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The Career Effects of Labour Market Conditions at Entry
This paper explores the effects of labour market conditions at graduation on an individual's work-life over the following decade. Australians graduating into a state and year with a 5 percentage point higher youth unemployment rate can expect to earn roughly 8 per cent less in their first year of work and 31⁄2 per cent less after five years, with the effect gradually fading to around zero ten years on. The magnitude of this effect varies according to the characteristics of the individual and the tertiary institution they attend. We then explore the mechanisms behind this scarring. Scarring partly reflects the subsequent evolution of the unemployment rate - the fact that unemployment shocks...
MARTIN Has Its Place
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