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Enhancing Development Assistance to Africa
The pace of progress toward achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDG) in many sub-Saharan African countries remains too slow to reach targets by 2015, despite significant progress in the late 1990s. The MDG Africa Steering Group, convened in September 2007 by the UN Secretary-General, designated 10 countries for pilot studies to investigate how existing national development plans would be impacted by scaled up development aid to Africa. This joint publication of the IMF and the United Nations Development Programme reports conclusions drawn from these pilot studies and summarizes country-specific results for Benin, the Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo, Sierra Leone, and Zambia.
Growth and Poverty Reduction in Armenia
Since 2000, Armenia's economic performance has been remarkable. Real economic growth has averaged 11 percent a year, annual inflation has averaged 3 percent, and poverty and inequality have fallen. The country has outperformed other low-income countries including other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. This is particularly impressive given the geographical location of Armenia, the closure of two critical borders, and occasional political turmoil. The key factors behind Armenia's economic performance are prudent monetary and fiscal policies, liberal trade and foreign exchange regimes, rapid and relaively well-sequenced structural reforms, and support from the Armenian diaspora. In addition, the implementation of a poverty reduction strategy since 2002 has complemented the effect of economic growth on reducing poverty. This book assesses the country's economic transformation during the last 10 years and discusses the challenges to sustaining these successes.
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?
This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management.
Rwanda
This paper discusses the economic performance of Rwanda. Despite an unfolding external shock, growth in Rwanda remained strong in 2015. Real GDP grew by an estimated 6.9 percent in 2015, buoyed by strong construction and services activity, and leading indicators suggest continued robust growth in the first quarter of 2016. However, in the absence of policy adjustment already underway, growth would remain at its potential, but the balance-of-payment situation would be unsustainable. The authorities are requesting to extend the current Policy Support Instrument (PSI)-supported program. The authorities believe the PSI framework has served well in anchoring their medium- and long-term growth and reform agenda, and signaling policy intentions and performance to investors and development partners.
Is the PRGF Living Up to Expectations?
In late 1999 the IMF established the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to integrate the objectives of poverty reduction and growth more fully into its operations for the poorest countries, and to base these operations on national poverty reduction strategies prepared by the country with broad participation of key stakeholders. A review of the program would be conducted two years later. This paper synthesizes two papers prepared by IMF staff: Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Issues and Options, and Review of the Key Features of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Staff Analyses. The paper draws on a broad range of internal and external views gathered between July 2001 and February 2002, including discussions at regional forums, meetings with donor government officials and representatives of civil society organizations, and comments of key officials in member countries with PRGF arrangements.
Walking a Fine Line
This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of scaling up public investment in Burkina Faso under alternative financing options, including through foreign aid and a combination of tax adjustment and borrowing. Our findings are twofold: (1) raising official development assistance in line with the Gleneagles agreement provides scope for financing public investment at low cost and would have positive, but somewhat moderate, effects on aggregate output—the growth dividends in the nontradables sector would be partially offset by the Dutch disease in the tradables sector; and (2) the massive investment scaling-up contemplated under Burkina Faso’s “accelerated growth” strategy, while boosting medium- and long-term growth, would lead to unsustainable debt dynamics under a plausible tax adjustment and realistic concessional financing. A more gradual approach to closing Burkina Faso’s infrastructure gap is therefore desirable because it would take into account the needed time for the country to address its capacity constraints and to further improve investment efficiency.
Tanzania
Monetary and fiscal easing, together with specific interventions under the Economic Rescue Plan, helped contain the immediate impact of the global crisis, but private sector recovery remains nascent. Inflation, persistently high during 2009 owing to large increases in food prices, has declined to single-digit levels. Revenues continue to underperform relative to the budget, resulting in a modest scaling back in expenditure to limit deterioration of the fiscal deficit. Monetary policy has produced a low interest rate environment, but private sector credit growth has slowed sharply.
Chad
This Selected Issues paper aims at discussing the impact of the oil windfall on Chad, with a focus on growth, poverty, competitiveness, and fiscal policy challenges posed by the oil revenue outlook. The paper discusses the reforms needed to remove structural factors that constraints the non-oil sector growth, in particular on civil and military services and the microfinance sector. The paper argues that Chad’s current growth potential is seriously limited by low levels of both human and physical capitals and by weak institutions and governance.
Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan - Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin and impact of climate change
This working paper takes stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows, and the impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. In particular, the paper focuses on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector, and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country towards a critical demand-supply gap.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa
Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.
