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Essays on Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics
This dissertation contains three essays addressing issues pertaining to macroeconomic policies in presence of imperfect and heterogeneous information. Chapter 1 studies how central banks should design communication as a function of the economic fundamentals and the private sector's heterogeneous beliefs about these fundamentals. Chapter 2 examines how the Federal Open Market Committee's state-dependent topics coverage may affect expectations about future monetary policy. Chapter 3 measures the impact of uncertainty about fiscal policy on financial markets. Macroeconomic decisions involve expectations about the state of the economy and the private sector relies on information provided by cent...
The Reproducibility of Economics Research
Given the importance of reproducibility for the scientific ethos, more and more journals have pushed for transparency of research through data availability policies. If the introduction and implementation of such data policies improve the availability of researchers' code and data, what is the impact on reproducibility? We describe and present the results of a large reproduction exercise in which we assess the reproducibility of research articles published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, which has implemented a data availability policy since 2005. Our replication success rate is relatively moderate, with 37.78% of replication attempts successful. 68 of 162 eligible replication attempts successfully replicated the article's analysis (41.98%) conditional on non-confidential data. A further 69 (42.59%) were at least partially successful. A total of 98 out of 303 (32.34%) relied on confidential or proprietary data, and were thus not reproducible by this project. We also conduct several bibliometric analyses of reproducible vs. non-reproducible articles and show that replicable papers do not provide citation bonuses for authors.
The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment
We provide evidence of a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms’ maturity structure of foreign currency debt around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Quantitatively, the dominant currency financing channel explains a significant part of the external adjustment process in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant currency, instead of the producer’s currency, mutes the effect of dominant currency financing on trade flows.
Tangata Whenua
Tangata Whenua: A History presents a rich narrative of the Māori past from ancient origins in South China to the twenty-first century, in a handy paperback format. The authoritative text is drawn directly from the award-winning Tangata Whenua: An Illustrated History; the full text of the big hardback is available in a reader-friendly edition, ideal for students and for bedtime reading, and a perfect gift for those whose budgets do not stretch to the illustrated edition. Maps and diagrams complement the text, along with a full set of references and the important statistical appendix. Tangata Whenua: An Illustrated History was published to widespread acclaim in late 2014. This magnificent his...
The Piketty Phenomenon
Few books have had the global impact of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century. An overnight bestseller, Piketty’s assessment that inherited wealth will always grow faster, on average, than earned wealth has energised debate. Hailed as ‘bigger than Marx’ (The Economist) or dismissed as ‘medieval’ (Wall Street Journal), the book is widely acknowledged as having significant economic and political implications. Collected in this BWB Text are responses to this phenomenon from a diverse range of New Zealand economists and commentators. These voices speak independently to the relevance of Piketty’s conclusions. Is New Zealand faced with a one-way future of rising inequality? Does redistribution need to focus more on wealth, rather than just income? Was the post-war Great Convergence merely an aberration and is our society doomed to regress into a new Gilded Age?
Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities
The empirical starting point for anyone who wants to understand political cleavages in the democratic world, based on a unique dataset covering fifty countries since WWII. Who votes for whom and why? Why has growing inequality in many parts of the world not led to renewed class-based conflicts, seeming instead to have come with the emergence of new divides over identity and integration? News analysts, scholars, and citizens interested in exploring those questions inevitably lack relevant data, in particular the kinds of data that establish historical and international context. Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities provides the missing empirical background, collecting and examining a tr...
Taxation and Migration
This book addresses the tax implications of migration, both from state to state and from country to country. It explores three questions: (1) How often do individuals receive free or heavily subsidized education in country or state A and then profit from it in country or state B, and what should be the tax consequences of this "brain drain", if any? (2) To what extent do people migrate from country or state A to country B for tax reasons, and what should country or state A do about it? (3) How often do individuals work in country or state A and then retire and receive pension income in country or state B, and what should be the tax consequences? The book also addresses whether corporate migrations (inversions) from the US involve movement of people as well as corporation and whether the same phenomenon happens in other jurisdictions.
Who Gets What--and why
A Nobel laureate reveals the often surprising rules that govern a vast array of activities -- both mundane and life-changing -- in which money may play little or no role. If you've ever sought a job or hired someone, applied to college or guided your child into a good kindergarten, asked someone out on a date or been asked out, you've participated in a kind of market. Most of the study of economics deals with commodity markets, where the price of a good connects sellers and buyers. But what about other kinds of "goods," like a spot in the Yale freshman class or a position at Google? This is the territory of matching markets, where "sellers" and "buyers" must choose each other, and price isn't the only factor determining who gets what. Alvin E. Roth is one of the world's leading experts on matching markets. He has even designed several of them, including the exchange that places medical students in residencies and the system that increases the number of kidney transplants by better matching donors to patients. In Who Gets What -- And Why, Roth reveals the matching markets hidden around us and shows how to recognize a good match and make smarter, more confident decisions.
Repeated Games with Incomplete Information
The basic model studied throughout the book is one in which players ignorant about the game being played must learn what they can from the actions of the others.
