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The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6. Modeling Systems Technical Paper 1
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
Drought risk reduction in agriculture
This report is a component of the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS)-funded project Impacts of Climate Extremes on Future Water and Food Security in South Asia and East Africa. The goal of the project was to characterize extreme drought events, to improve on a methodology to assess the probability of these events in the future under climate change, to illustrate their impacts, and to provide suggestions on coping strategies. The present report sets the stage for the overall project by undertaking a review of the causes of vulnerability to drought in East Africa and the western Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of South Asia, and discussing the options to increase resilience to drought in the agricultural sector. Agriculture is a high-risk endeavor in both regions, due to a combination of recurrent droughtswhich may intensify due to climate changepoor soil fertility, and a host of constraints faced by farmers, especially low access to input and output markets. These factors, combined with farmers high aversion to risk, stifle investments in agriculture, resulting in continuous underachieving production, low income, and persisting poverty.
Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hun...
Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity
The worlds population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Climate change, population, and income growth will drive food demand in the coming decades. Baseline scenarios show food prices for maize, rice, and wheat would significantly increase between 2005 and 2050, and the number of people at risk of hunger in the developing world would grow from 881 million in 2005 to more than a billion people by 2050. Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies examines which current and potential strategies offer solutions to fight hunger. The type and effectiveness of agricultural technologies are highly debated, and the debates are often polarized. ...
Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Sustainable Nutrition in a Changing World
This book is the first of its kind to tackle in detail the nutritional requirements of the industrialized, so-called developed world. It discusses the link between socio-economic status and food security, focusing especially on the relationship between income and food security in different age groups. The authors calculate the actual levels of essential micronutrients delivered by current dietary patterns, identifying important shortfalls in the provision of key micronutrients, and elucidate the public health consequences of nutrition insecurity. Finally, the authors discuss future approaches for ensuring nutrition security on the basis of three pillars: access, availability and nutritional value. The approaches advocated in this ground-breaking publication will allow all people, irrespective of age and social status, to have access to a safe and nutritious diet. Key stakeholders such as legislators, government, academia and industry, as well as consumers themselves, all have important roles to play in making this a reality.
Cities and rural transformation: A spatial analysis of rural youth livelihoods in Ghana
Urbanization has had a major impact on livelihoods in Ghana and throughout Africa as a whole. However, much research on urbanization has focused on effects occurring within cities, while there is insufficient understanding of its effects on rural areas. This paper examines the impact of urbanization—through a typology of districts—on rural livelihoods in Ghana. The country’s districts are classified into seven spatial groups according to the size of the largest city in each district in southern and northern Ghana. The paper does not address rural–urban migration but instead focuses on the livelihoods of rural households. In contrast to the extensive literature focusing on the effects...
The impact of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme on the nutritional status of children: 2008–2012
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) is a large-scale social protection intervention aimed at improving food security and stabilizing asset levels. The PSNP contains a mix of public works employment and unconditional transfers. It is a well-targeted program; however, several years passed before payment levels reached the intended amounts. The PSNP has been successful in improving household food security. However, children’s nutritional status in the localities where the PSNP operates is poor, with 48 percent of children stunted in 2012. This leads to the question of whether the PSNP could improve child nutrition. In this paper, we examine the impact of the PSNP on children...
A thriving agricultural sector in a changing climate
Given its heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture and projected climatic and weather changes, SSA faces multidimensional challenges in ensuring food and nutrition security as well as preserving its ecosystems. In this regard, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can play an important role in addressing the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. CSA practices aim to achieve three closely related objectives: sustainably increase agricultural productivity, adapt to climate change, and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The CSA objectives directly contribute to achieving the 2014 Malabo Declaration goals, which include commitments to (1) end hunger in Africa by 2025, (2) halv...
