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Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects
A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the natio...
Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions
This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.
World Economic Outlook, April 2017
Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.
Insight Turkey 2021/04: Turkey's Grand Strategy
With extensive international changes taking place in the last three decades, such as the collapse of the bipolar world system, the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, the declining hegemony of the U.S., the lack of global leadership, and the rise of challenging global powers, like any other regional power, Turkey has initiated a comprehensive conceptual and theoretical transformation and a process of restructuring in its foreign policy understanding. Turkey has gone beyond the typical realist understanding and begun to develop a new foreign policy perspective that considers moral values. While some consider this new perspective as a ‘civilizational approach,’ others call it ‘moral reali...
Insight Turkey / Summer 2022: Embracing Emerging Technologies
Historically speaking, technology has been one of the main determinants in international politics due to its impact on economic development and warfare. However, lately, its preponderancy is becoming more inclusive considering that technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) Internet of Things (IoT), big data, blockchain, 3D printing, etc. are evolving faster than ever. From the Ukraine-Russia war and the energy crisis to the global economic and social crisis to the deepening great powers rivalry, all point to the importance of emerging technologies. Specifically, technology has become a key asset in the framework of international relations, and the so-called technopolitics –the enta...
Insight Turkey / Fall 2023: Turktime Has Begun
The 10th Summit of the Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is a significant event for the Turkic World, scheduled for November 3, 2023, in Astana, Kazakhstan. Hosted by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, this summit is set to be a vital gathering for the leaders of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states, along with the Secretary General of the OTS. The Summit was crowned with the central theme, “TURKTIME,” a visionary proclamation from the leaders to future generations. This theme embodies a unified, cooperative spirit, and a collective determination to steer the Turkic World toward a trajectory of prosperity and comprehensive development. T...
Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
